Assembly-line new homes being built in Halton.
Thinking of the current energy crunch, a blog visitor recently asked me if the suburbs will soon die. The question’s more reasonable than it appears. After all, we’re in a watershed time. Is a form of housing born six decades ago, created for that time and based on premises we all now challenge, doomed?
In my neck of the woods, the urban sprawl that extends for 100 km in every direction from downtown Toronto, they call them the Xburbs. This is where the Gen Xers go to buy McMansions built on an assembly line and then planted on Class A farmland. They do this because they can get 3,000 square feet of new house with granite countertops, stainless appliances, media rooms, double car garages and a better lifestyle than their parents achieved after fifty years, instantly. Often the downpayment is next to nothing, just 1.5% of purchase price. And with a 40-year mortgage, monthly payments are lessened. It means a quality of life can be had without the bother of a lifetime of work. What’s not to like?
Initially, suburbs offered a release from the grime and proximity of urban living. They gave what only rich people could afford them – space, the illusion of nature, convenience and modernity. They were also important because of homogeneity. The suburbs were quintessentially middle-class and upwardly mobile, with decent schools and an utter sameness which was comforting after the unevenness of city life.
Like you, perhaps, I was a child of this lifestyle. Cars, lawns, predictable neighbours, dogs, curvy streets, shopping centres and more suburbs, all connected with arterial roads and controlled-access highways which eventually snaked away to a pointy downtown. For decades, this was a choice place to aspire to. But lately, conditions have changed. We are now questioning the very premise of the burbs.
Futurist James Kunstler has called them the greatest waste of infrastructure in human history, and may well be correct. After all, the burbs only work when there are cars, and the energy needed to make them run is now becoming precious. Second, the urban sprawl which the suburbs by definition create has given society a problem akin to that faced by the Roman Empire – millions of people now live far from services and supplies, and bringing those lines closer is bankrupting everyone. Third, the suburbs, populated with wasteful single-family homes left empty too often and only partially occupied the rest of the time, sitting on land which once produced crops, sucking endless energy and water through miles of pipes and tubes, where residents burn a litre of gas to get a litre of milk in a distant, centralized shopping area to avoid lower property values through neighbourhood commercialization, are an environmental nightmare. Fourth, demographics and growing need for Boomers to convert homes into cash dooms the kind of homes most of them now own. Fifth, suburbs are about to suffer the greatest blow – falling out of fashion.
This leads us to the future, immediate and long-term. What should we expect to happen to the suburbs?
Clearly, the threats are well-known. Suburbs need cars, and our car-centric culture is threatened as never before. Until alternatives to the oil-fuelled internal combustion engine are reliable and affordable, the burbs will decline in popularity. The energy crisis also underscores the massive mistakes policy-makers have left us with – miles of houses without stores, streetscapes nobody wants to walk down, infrastructure so inefficient that property taxes become unaffordable, whole new populated landscapes without shade trees or moderating open waters and where per-unit energy consumption is unparalleled. Worse, we have mass-produced homes of many building materials with a life expectancy measured in decades, not centuries.
These and other factors lead me to the inescapable conclusion that buyers are falling out of love with the suburbs, a trend that will rapidly augment. In fact, living in the distant, minivan-cluttered pods will become akin to smoking. Shunned, socially downscale, culturally inferior, environmentally toxic.
The conclusion, economically, is clear: Big price declines, proportionate with the amount of gas required to get there. As smart, modern, transit-friendly urban properties increase in value, so will the behemoths in the burbs devalue. Furthermore, the larger the home, the less it will be worth.
In case you just awoke, it is already happening.
150 comments ↓
Garth .. from an engineering ‘value analysis’ pov, the problem is not the ‘burbs’ … it’s the bad design of the means of individual transport. The entire energy crisis could be easily solved if people commuting between their burb-homes and jobs would drive something like a Smart car instead of a huge ‘yank tank’ that are essentially designed to move it’s own massive weight plus a few insignificant human bodies.
When you see an SUV or a personal pickup truck transporting one person, that is a huge waste of gasoline energy … both to manufacture the truck and to move it. The world, particularly the North American world is moving too much useless metal over our highways particularly when only one human body is inside it.
Just think about it, Garth … all you really need to move one human body is a go-cart with a lawnmower engine … and what do we see on the roads now ???? … people transporting their living room beasts and then complaining about the cost of gasoline … come on now …!!!!
I’m not saying that trucks should be entirely banned, but their sales should be restricted to situations where they are needed. Also I don’t condemn minivans used to transport larger families, but they should be kept for a minimum of 10 years as family transportation for full value and use.
Just have legislation that would encourage smaller vehicles for personal one or two passenger use, and heavily penalize those who would flaunt their wealth and wasteful excess driving Hummers, Caddys, Lincs, and those 300+HP beasts from Japan too… or better yet ban the beasts altogether.
You are a wonderful example of somebody with a small carbon footprint when you motorbike from Milton to London .. as you were recently shown on CTV News … Udaman Garth … Keep on bikin’ …!!!!
Great article Garth! Of historical interest,I watched an interesting retrospect some months ago relating how the car companies, in the 50s I think, had bought up trolley lines to the newly extablished “burbs” in over 400 cities, (the exact number escapes me) and, then they dismantled the rails in order to force the population to buy and use their automobiles. Just a thought for anyone who might actually feel sorry for the auto sector. It is time to let the auto sector operate, or not, without more government handouts!!!
Now this is an analysis I can agree with, though I think the process will be slower than you imagine. People will hold to their valued lifestyle as long as they can. I was people watching at COSTCO today, waiting for the wife to finish shopping. While sitting there I wondered at the pace of consumption. The place was packed and the carts were full, as was the parking lot. This was happening in thousands of suburbs today in Canada, as though the energy crisis didn’t exist. I still think, regardless, once Canadians have had time to reflect, they will start adjusting their lifestyle expectations one step at a time. This is my problem with the Green Shift Tax. It will expect to much change in too short of time with too little resources available. As a Prof I make a very decent salary and live very modestly by NA standards, yet I have to work at putting the money together to make our family more energy efficient. E.G. paying for solar or wind equipment. We are in the process of down sizing our energy footprint in many ways besides. This tax would sink many other families I know who are in the same position. The timing is wrong, or its to late. Gas prices will force this change over time anyway.
The conclusion, economically, is clear: Big price declines, proportionate with the amount of gas required to get there. As smart, modern, transit-friendly urban properties increase in value, so will the behemoths in the burbs devalue. Furthermore, the larger the home, the less it will be worth.
In case you just awoke, it is already happening.
posted by Garth Turner on 07.05.08 @ 11:39 pm
Of course this is the vision of the liberal party. Under Dion’s carbon tax grab it would certainly make it more difficult for those who would choose to leave the over crowded, violent inner city for a more serene family oriented suburb.
The professor and his social engineering experiment ain’t gonna happen. He will never be PM so we can pretty much rest at ease knowing we have a government that is not going to destroy our livelihood in order to accomplish his political objectives.
Part of what Harry S says, I agree with, but what is also needed is for more use of computers at home for work and teleconferencing, etc.
Mostly why we richer peasants drive by ourselves in vehicles that are impact resistance improved is we can not put up with the personalities of others in or around our personal space! Can you imagine some of the regular posters on this forum in a carpool? It would take less than a week before criminal charges would be warranted and probably laid! The solution is approve the electric car(s) for urban street use in Ontario. They recharge over night for $3.63Cdn. Just Google up Zenn Motor Cars
http://media.cleantech.com/2031/zenn-electric-cars-are-cleared-for-canada
This will be a truly green shift and will also save lives!
Malvina Reynolds – Little Boxes
Little boxes on the hillside, Little boxes made of ticky tacky
Little boxes on the hillside, little boxes all the same
There’s a green one and a pink one and a blue one and a yellow one
And they’re all made out of ticky tacky and they all look just the same.
Looks like we,ll be back to a 55 MPH speed limit again soon.A simple and short term solution to lower fuel consumption. I notice a definite slowing down of traffic these days.
Some good news for a change. Gasoline sales, year-to-year comparisons, for Canada for a 1-month period, StatsCan, indicate gasoline purchases are DOWN 117 MILLION litres.
“This is all coming despite figures released Friday saying the volume of gasoline sales, and also of most other fuels, has started to fall.”
http://www.canada.com/topics/news/national/story.html?id=99be6717-58cf-4c28-b1e7-3026ee87dabc
So, if you forsake your car to use public transit, more power to you!
Caution:
This does not appear to be a prefabrication!
I got my first up-close look at where my new neighbours are living while (coincidentally) distributing Garth Turner fliers over the past few weeks.
Several things struck me:
1) In the two and a half or so hours I spent pounding the pavement, I saw exactly two other people using the sidewalks – one walking a dog, and another handing out newspapers.
2) The reason for this may be the fact that there is absolutely no shade to be found. Anywhere.
3) The second development I walked through wasn’t bad, but the houses in first one (which was only a year old) all had peeling paint, heaved up paving and crumbling concrete on their steps and porches.
There are many, many things wrong with suburbia, particularly in its current, “insta-house” incarnation. Garth has covered most of them, but one thing we all have to remember is that the people living there aren’t the enemy.
Too often in Milton I’ve heard disparaging, marginally racist comments made about “those people” who have suddenly invaded our town, as if somehow they are to blame for the mess. In fact, not only are they the victims in all this, they are actually responsible for the only upside in this whole fiasco: added racial and cultural diversity in Milton.
Hell, I can actually buy some decent East Indian junk food now!
By all means, blame the developers, although they are only doing what corporations do – maximizing profits. Even better, blame the municipal politicians who, seduced by the siren song of millions in added property taxes and development fees, have rubber stamped every single development application that has crossed their desks with the sole caveat that there be at least one Big Box complex for every eight square kilometres of McHouses.
The fact that they have suddenly realized that all the development fees they’ve been charging don’t begin to cover the costs of servicing these developments, and in fact come too late to help anyone for years after they move in, elicits exactly zero sympathy from me.
And yet, they keep handing out those permits like candy and continue to leave all the fussy business of urban planning to corporations whose sole purpose is to squeeze as many high-priced, low-cost houses as they can into hundreds of undervalued acres of former farmland that we may never, ever get back.
They should all be run out of town on a rail.
Kelowna has been in the process of re-designing downtown for a few years now, bringing it from the old, WWII style to seeing how high is high enough, to encourage more folk to live and work in the city.
Sunshine tax doesn’t help much — low to average pay. Young peoople come here for a good time in summer, then move on.
“. . . What’s not to like?”
‘Owzabout being locked in for XX years, then — !POP! — one or both partners lose job(s), must sell to pay off debts but a lot of others are in the same boat, banks repossess then own, then have to sell to make good on all the money they lent in the first place, except — there are no buyers!
So, the answer is? I, for one, don’t know, as I’m not a banker. Way beyond my IQ level!
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Ron Paul is right with this — IF it does happen. Further comments courtesy WRH.com.
“Memo to those knuckleheads in congress who actually believe nuking Iran would be such a swell idea:
“1. The nuclear fuel rods are already in place at the Russian-built power plant.
“The reactor is almost completely assembled. If this facility is nuked, there will be a huge radioactive cloud which could affect our troops in Iraq (depending on the prevailing winds).
“2. The Gulf of Hormuz would be completely shut by the Iranians, probably collapsing the world economy.
“3. Our troops in Iraq will be sitting ducks for Iranian-backed insurgents and then Iranian troops in Iraq.
“4.Critical air, sea, and land corridors into and out of, Iraq will be closed, with no way to get troops or supplies to the area.
“5. This little ‘exercise’ may well start World War III.
“And if I were a member of congress, there’s one question on which I would have to ask, and this is the 6-ton elephant in the living room in this issue, sitting on the Steinway piano: just what is Russia prepared to do to protect her geopolitical and trade interests in Iran?”
(Following Russia, what of China? They also have a strong interest in this part of the world. As mentioned a day or so ago, the new US President takes office, etc., but dubya follows Putin’s lead — moves up one level, and a new position is created for him — my comment.)
A few days ago, I read a report — unconfirmed — that Zionists are behind the west’s fiscal meltdown; they are also working hard to bring China to it’s knees.
http://tinyurl.com/5kxg6j
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dubya has once again managed to prove beyond all doubt that by allowing this, he makes himself a first-class . . . ummmm . . . ahhhh . . . you figure it out!
http://tinyurl.com/5kk26d
Hi Garth.
Falling home prices, Alberta and Quebec separation are tiny threats compared to the one talked about here by Peter Dale Scott, former Canadian diplomat. The guilty parties may be forced to pull off another attack. Why do Canadian politicians avoid this topic?
http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=9511
I’d lend you a shovel but I think you and Dion are doing a fine job of diggin your own graves!
I drive an 8000lb diesel Dodge, mainly with just me on board. Sometimes I pull my boat and take my kids fishing and tubing. Canada day weekend set me back $300.00 in fuel for both. Still good inexpensive fun for 5.
There is no energy crisis and no global warming.What exisists is mis information and panic and politicians whose only chance at recovering power is to attach themselves to bullshit. During the early 70’s we were running out of oil and heading for an ice age.I won’t waste any more time typing about crap issues I will how ever say that thank God for Mr. Dion’s carbon tax plan. The liberal leadership will drive the last few nails into the liberal coffin.
Harry I can’t believe it!!! I read posts from the bottom up to avoid reading those written by yourself and most others because they they are mostly playing at the game of politics without actually proposing anything new as an alternative to the problems we face now. In fact I’m sorry but I always saw you as a twelve year old in my mind based on how you wrote your posts. I hope this is just the beginning of reading more of your new well thought out opinions on Garths topics.
Speaking of which this is one of the most important topics facing us today. Most people accept the idea that life is a series of forks in the road and the sum total of ones life is the path you chose every time you picked a fork. The path ahead of us as a nation has so many forks in it that there is no visible route. The only rule we have to follow is that if we keep going right or left we will never get to where we want to get to and eventually move in the opposite direction. This same model holds true in both politics and business. Denmark chose to turn to the left and moves right just often enough to keep their society in a groove just left of center. The U.S. automatically turns to the right but when the Republicans are in power keep heading right in every decision until they end up in the mess they are in today every time. In the 1970’s the Japanese auto companies concentrated on building small fuel efficient cars which they follow to this day and are the most successful in the world while the American companies built small cars for a few years then started building the more profitable monstroseties on our roads today. The reason mini vans and trucks are popular is simple. None of the small and mid sized cars are easy for anyone over 6 feet tall or 200 pounds to get in and out of comfortably. The new crossover cars are the first time anyone solved this problem and as a result are the big sellers now. Imagine if one of the American companies had followed this path long ago? What if one of them changed most of their 8 cylynder engines to 6 and 6 cylinders to 4 on a different path? Would they be struggling to survive today?
I have read several articles on the future of suberbs recently and basically they described between them three paths we can follow to solve the problem.
The first is to set the objective of eliminating 50% of the cars of the road daily in urban centers thus freeing up the rest to actually move with far less gridlock. The usual combination of increased public transit, trains and tolls to force all but the rich off the road were proposed. This would also reduce vehicle pollution by over 50% because by reducing all that idling time when no one is going anywhere fast will more than offset any pollution from more buses etc.
The second is for the federal government to pass a law prohibiting any municipality from designating an area residential only. This would also need a provision that 25% of land in any new subdivision be set aside for light business or commercial. We would also need a buffer of a kilometre around all existing suberbs designated industrial only to prevent further sprawl. This path could be called the civil re-engineering one.
The third option is the default one we are following now called the do nothing path. Like in the 70’s gas crises property in the inner cities near transit lines and closest to jobs will maintain or increase in value while the further away the property from these two things, the greater the decrease in value with places like Garths riding and Barrie taking the biggest hit. An article called Suberbs, the next Ghetto? described how eventually in the states the poor will be forced out of the cities into the suberbs and forced to live like the sprawling slums outside cities in Mexico and South America.
As I just pointed out this fork in the road like the dozens of others we are facing at the same time will require MAJOR, MAJOR changes in our lives and HUGE policy choices by our political parties. The days of 30 second sound bite policies will only ensure we follow the default path to every problem and in EVERY case the resulting solution is ugly for most people.
“I’m not saying that trucks should be entirely banned, but their sales should be restricted to situations where they are needed.”
I’d almost agree with you, if it wasn’t for freedom aspect. Yes it’s wasteful, but if someone wants to be wasteful, this is a country where they have the right to be wasteful…and that should not be forgotten just because big auto is too slow to mass produce highly efficient engine designs.
Kudos to Garth for taking the bike…but remember, the North American bike market isn’t exactly that fuel efficient either. 400cc’s is plenty to keep you flying past most traffic, yes most riders insist on 1200+ cc’s.
Harley Davidson – “The most efficient way to make noise, without emitting much power.”
…Ohh! And great topic Garth! I really enjoyed that article!
Brain and anyone else interested in the core problems we are facing today.
Check out http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business and read the article “we are riddled with debt but the cure is a killer”
Interesting how Britain is in as bad shape as the U.S. and are now looking at some of the solutions we were discussing yesterday. If the polititions in this country had any brains they would be looking at the same solutions now because our turn is coming.
Good Sunday morning to you Garth. Can’t believe I am writing so early but the sun was shining and it is a beautiful day! This is a bit off topic but a few days ago I asked the people who were slagging M. Diun’s green plan to explain more about their plans – Cap and Trade etc. – and why they were better. As usual, no replies. Maybe they were too busy thinking up partisan shots! However, William Marsden wrote a great article in The Gazette on Saturday, July 5th. Three Parties, Three strategies, explaining all three party positions and gave pros and cons for each position. It really clarified the debate for me and I think many of your readers would find it a helpful and useful article. However not being as computer literate as I would like to be, I can’t provide the link!!( I should go on a computer course for old broads!) I know Greg W. Oakville, Bill Muskoka, or Barb the Proof Reader have that skill ( thanks for your many useful and interesting links guys) and I would really appreciate it if they could put the link on this blog for interested readers who want to be informed and want to debate with facts not partisan shots. I have already made a print copy to show my friends and relatives. BTW Garth, my daughter who I think just lives in your riding ( North of upper middle road? ) told me a few weeks ago that houses in her area are not selling as quickly and prices being reduced.
You are a wonderful example of somebody with a small carbon footprint when you motorbike from Milton to London .. as you were recently shown on CTV News … Udaman Garth … Keep on bikin’ …!!!!
By Harry S on 07.06.08 12:03 am
And you are a wonderful example of emission of co2 with your useless posts and threats….
Of course this is the vision of the liberal party. Under Dion’s carbon tax grab it would certainly make it more difficult for those who would choose to leave the over crowded, violent inner city for a more serene family oriented suburb.
The professor and his social engineering experiment ain’t gonna happen. He will never be PM so we can pretty much rest at ease knowing we have a government that is not going to destroy our livelihood in order to accomplish his political objectives.
By Janice on 07.06.08 12:25 am
Yes…all that has happened is because of Dion…amazing how this Liberal leader has controlled the economic agenda while sitting on the opposition side. I hate to burst your bubble but how you vote doesn’t control the outcome. There are other Canadians who have a say and the majority will say NO to Harper. They did last time and this time even more will say NO, especially those who have been deceived and lied to, like me.
By Harry S on 07.06.08 12:03 am
You’re right about most of what you say, but the “burbs” is a failed experiment concerning waste. Wasted space, wasted heat, wasted energy in commuting, a waste of forest… and lets not forget the finite resource of wasted time.
As well, the answer is to get cars off conventional fuels altogether and run them off of electricity, solar, air or other sources. If we can pull off this trick, its a matter of electrical generation from there.
Everything can be made to run off of electricity and the mass production of electricity is easier than most people think. Think geothermal. We have 80% of the worlds population at coastlines worldwide. Think tides and geothermal, wind in the interior, hydro in the mountains, geothermal at the pac rim where heat is a plenty.
As for what we should be building our homes with, its not forests. Its ADOBE’s/earthen homes (skip sun baked bricks, were way past that now with compressed earth) with geothermal loop open systems to bring the structural heat up to the 40’s – 50’s in F (far cheaper than closed loop systems that require expensive drilling for higher heats). Thats the future of homes as I see it, with heat to water to air exchangers that are solar/wind/conventionally heated from there. But for these changes to occur, we need a major shift in thinking, a paragdigm shift that hasn’t hit the consciousness of the average person.
But guess what.
Were not average! We’ve got MP’s like Garth who aren’t average, we’ve got candidates soon to be elected who aren’t average, we’ve got virtual democracy that isn’t average, we’ve got a meeting of the minds here, and persistent people like yourself that for once batted over .500 and we’ll find those solutions. The buzz is that brilliant minds exist and in forums like this, they’ll flourish.
I agree with Garth that there will be an erosion in value of large, long-communte homes. But this may only be in the near term, i.e. 5 to 10 years.
There is some very promising transportation technology coming on stream that would still give consumers the communicating range they need in a vehicle, without the need to burn any gasoline. A prime example of that is the CityZenn. This automobile is electric powered and stores an electric charge in capacitors, rather than using batteries. The result is claimed to be a car with a top speed of 80 MPH and a range of about 250 miles on a single charge. Supposedly it is coming to market in 2010.
As the price of oil goes higher, so too will efforts to find cost affordable alternatives.
Within the next 10 years I believe that many people will be generating their own electric power through solar and wind, and charging their electric cars with their own self-generated electricity. The technology to do that currently exists, but it is still cost prohibitive for the average family. As with all newer technologies, as manufacturing volume goes up, costs will come down.
By tricia on 07.06.08 6:55 am
You are right Tricia, North of Upper Middle Road, Burlington is Halton riding, home of Canada’s best MP!
By William Terry on 07.06.08 3:49 am
I drive an 8000lb diesel Dodge, mainly with just me on board. – William Terry
Uh huh…
Sometimes I pull my boat and take my kids fishing and tubing. Canada day weekend set me back $300.00 in fuel for both. Still good inexpensive fun for 5. – William Terry
Inexpensive, you say… ever ask the environment that question?
There is no energy crisis and no global warming.What exisists is mis information and panic and politicians whose only chance at recovering power is to attach themselves to bullshit. During the early 70’s we were running out of oil and heading for an ice age.I won’t waste any more time typing about crap issues – William Terry
Peak oil denier, check.
Climate change denier, check.
Was once fed mis-information and now believes all information is false, check.
All politicians are liars, check. Doesn’t waste time typing about crap issues, check.
“I will how ever say that thank God for Mr. Dion’s carbon tax plan. The liberal leadership will drive the last few nails into the liberal coffin. – William Terry
Religious nutter, check.
Rabid partisan cheap shot, check.
0 for 8 in the thinking department, lets guess how he votes!
Late breaking news regarding solar powered electric cars… this gentleman has been touring the world in his promoting the concept…
Solar-powered car on world tour rolls into B.C.
A Swiss man on an international tour touting the advantages of solar energy was in British Columbia this weekend, showing off his solar-powered electric car, a vehicle he says can go 100 kilometres for as little as 50 cents.
Solar car costs pennies to drive
View more MSN videosGo to CTV.ca
A Swiss man, Louis Palmer, on an international tour touting the advantages of solar energy was in British Columbia this weekend, showing off his solar-powered electric car
CTV.ca News Staff
Louis Palmer has already zipped through 27 countries riding his solar vehicle, one which the Swiss teacher built with friends. It’s powered by batteries that receive about 50 per cent of their charge from a solar panel trailer. The other half of the charge comes from electrical outlets.
“It’s amazing, you see. I don’t pay for petrol … Driving 100 kilometres costs me 50 cents,” he told CTV News.
As part of a round-the-world trip to raise awareness about alternatives to fossil fuels, Palmer has driven 32,000 kilometres. But he hasn’t paid a penny for gas — something he says is possible for every driver.
“It’s not a matter of technology anymore. Cars that can drive without a single drop of petrol — just with the power of the sun which is absolutely clean energy — this technology is available,” he said.
For those worried that solar cars are too slow, Palmer has the answer. He said his car can reach a top speed of 90 kilometres per hour.
Palmer hopes to take his solar car across five continents on his 18-month mission to educate commuters about the advantages of solar power.
He’s aleady driven through China, India, Eastern Europe, and Australia.
With a report from CTV’s Rob Brown in Vancouver
Once, just once, wouldn’t it be nice if the CPC trolls would actually do a clean, informed debate instead of using their computers to simply attack. What a grumpy bunch of people they are.
I grew up in the burbs and I hated it as a kid. Miles to go to anything – corner store, a movie, school, waiting for trees to grow and every neighbourhood looking the same.
During a family crisis I moved to rural Ontario, thinking I’d be moving back to the City……that was 16 years ago. I love it here. Each house has it’s own character, a couple of blocks to a corner store. I can walk downtown to the theatre, pubs, art displays. I can take a VIA train to Toronto (takes 1 hour). The people are friendly and you never feel alone. Just love it. I’d never move back to the City or the burbs.
By tricia on 07.06.08 6:55 am
William Marsden… a brilliant mind!
His book “Stupid to the Last Drop” has been out with Randomhouse since October and is doing quite well, an excellent read for anyone who wants to grasp the seriousness of the issues of peak oil and the environment.
William Marsden… when you mentioned his name Tricia, I just had to find the link for you as the man is truly cutting edge and if there’s someone who knows the skinny, its William.
http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news/story.html?id=4fda8237-74f3-4346-90c1-897e16c95ace
There are 5 pages worth, each one well worth the read and pretty much putting it in a nut shell. I was hoping someone like William would rise to the occasion and he has. The debate should be formed around an article such as this as it is well written and informative without being an overall information overload. (keep in mind that there are a couple errors in the numbers he’s given, I’ll be glad to point them out)
And I offer a challenge to anyone who wishes to defend the NDP plan or Conservative plan over the Liberal plan and the plan that William Marsden didn’t include, that of the Greens. And the tone… should there be those who wish to challenge in a debate on the pros/cons of Canada’s political party platforms, I’ll give what I get, so… just be respectful should there be any takers who wish to defend cap n’ trade or carbon capture (which is what the refineries are going to have to do anyways, the big question is the incentives for them to do so and when, so… good luck defending Harper’s position on that one).
Tricia – Here is the link to that Mtl. Gazette article, but first I’ll quote a para from it:
“Carbon Tax What is it?
This is a direct tax on every litre of fossil fuel consumed, including gasoline, natural gas, propane, home heating fuel and diesel. It can be applied at the pump, as British Columbia is doing, or at the refinery, as is the case in Quebec and with the federal Liberals’ plan”.
First off, The Liberal Green Shift” plan, does not call for a tax on gasoline at the pumps as Dion stated their is already a fed. excise tax. Correct me if I’m wrong.
http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news/story.html?id=4fda8237-74f3-4346-90c1-897e16c95ace
I haven’t read the whole article yet.
Tricia, do you know how to open multiple windows in Internet Explorer (IE)? If so, its easy to create links.
Three parties, three strategies
A new FEDERAL law requires us to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, sparking a debate on how to go about it: The Liberals want a carbon tax, the NDP a cap-and-trade system, while the Tories favour carbon capture and storage
WILLIAM MARSDEN, The Gazette
Published: Saturday, July 05
http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news/story.html?id=4fda8237-74f3-4346-90c1-897e16c95ace
There ye be, Tricia me darlin’ …
Getchur compass, look due South to 170 degrees in a westerly direction … we be there!
WE, THE UNDERSIGNED, STRONGLY FAVOUR THE HON. GARTH TURNER IN ALL RESPECTS, IN A RESPECTFUL MANNER.
JenniferS, re” “Too often in Milton I’ve heard disparaging, marginally racist comments made about “those people” who have suddenly invaded our town, as if somehow they are to blame for the mess. In fact, not only are they the victims in all this, they are actually responsible for the only upside in this whole fiasco: added racial and cultural diversity in Milton.”
Are you sure they’re not talking about “those people” — white, black, and brown — of North Milton that took the bait, bought a house, and have ruined their once-liveable town?
Geezuz! Where do you come up with this stuff? Why don’t you and the rest of the left loonies, tree hugging, polar bear saving, environmental whackos move out to the wilderness live in communes and leave the rest of us alone. You and your ilk would have been great flower children in the 70’s. The biggest threat to our well being at this time is people that actually believe and spew this shit. The economy started tanking when idiots like Al Gore, David Suzuki and the likes of Dion were given a platform by the save the planet media types. Unless we start to wake up from this redistribution of wealth scam we are in for a rough ride.
Solar car costs pennies to drive
By TS on 07.06.08 8:13 am
Conservatives and the oil companies, don’t want cars that cost pennies to drive. Nothing frightens them more than the dream of cheap, clean energy being bought to fruition. What has been foisted upon us by the unholy trinity of neo-cons, Big Oil, and global warming deniers will one day be judged as one of the most reprehensible con-jobs ever perpetrated on humanity. How sad.
Now the Real Fireworks Begin!
Larry Edelson–Money & Markets 07-06-08
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?NewsletterEntryId=1934
I drive an 8000lb diesel Dodge, mainly with just me on board.
BY WILLIAM TERRY ON 07.06.08 3:49 AM
Right on Billy Boy. I hope your kids will get intelligent guidance in school. You’re a dead waste of space.
Keep on looking after #1. It will be a tough break if your grandkids can’t breathe but at least you had a good time.
We get it, your an idiot, but to brag about it? Tell me you work in the oil patch and you’ll make my day.
By William Dahl on 07.06.08 5:55 am
Just caught the link, William. The numbers are ugly and Britian is right on the edge of the cliff that the U.S. just fell from.
The story is good and well done in terms of numbers and research (cold hard facts, gotta like ‘em) but there are three false assumptions.
1) Japan’s 18 deflationary years were misery. This is somewhat exaggerated in a sense. There were a few tough years, but deflation is normal after an economic bubble. Static deflation isn’t as bad as people think for two reasons. Currency could be gaining ground internationally, which is the case with Japan (except for the last few years, they own too many U.S. dollars). Secondly, its deflation of personal equity, i.e. real estate, and to another degree deflation of currency valuations that kills national economies as a whole but these are symptoms of larger problems (fed/personal debt load per capita/GST ratios with currency and trade deficits over sustained or chronic timelines). With Japan, their cost of living has deflated, offsetting deflation in wealth.
2) The article makes the ascertion that deflation is a bad thing overall and thats a mistake as well and I’ve kind of already touched on it. Deflation of the cost of living, i.e. energy, food, transportation, the things we all need to survive… deflation of these things is a good thing! Its not good for the markets in the commodity sector or the financials that back them up but overall, its good for ordinary people who have to pay for the costs of living so deflation in the areas of cost of living isn’t a bad thing for consumers… persay. (thats not to say deflation in the cost of living is good for the environment as it isn’t. Deflation in the cost of goods quite frankly, promotes more waste. If gas was cheap, we’d all be driving V-8’s and tossing half eaten meals in the garbage thinking nothing of it)
Deflation in personal wealth is whats bad. Deflation of personal wealth, homes, (and yes, the markets/commodities) is what is bad but here too, inflation of personal wealth/homes/commodities also has its own converse set of problems. (swelled heads, soft societies)
Point is, the article makes the blanket assumption that deflation overall is a bad thing and thats just not true. Ideally, most of us would agree that we want a cheap cost of living and more money in our pockets and a higher value to what we own but like I say, its not ideal for people who buy in high because what does go up does come down and its happening right now. And this leads to number 3.
3) Policy strategy. Two really bad things are happening right now in Britain, the U.S., well, everywhere including right here. We have runaway inflation with the cost of living, while we have what is about to be runaway deflation in personal wealth/real estate and where the bottoms are, whos to say. To get the right policy, we have to distinguish the difference/breakdowns between inflation/deflation in cost of living/personal wealth and if we don’t, or use blanket policies to address either or, it will hurt all that much more in the long never mind the short. And the sad truth is we never really have. The feds big blanket cure is print more money or print less money and let market forces run their course, but…
I say look at Japan one more time. They’ve deflated the cost of living that has offset their deflation in personal wealth (including market deflation). We surely know that deflation is happening in real estate/personal wealth, do we not? Its the cost of living that governments must focus on but here’s the catch.
Its not the same climate as it was in ‘29, or 86′ or 93′. Climate change is for real, folks, so lets not be lemmings and tell us all that we can burn conventional fuels forever and not get burned either environmentally, with chronic shortages or with skyrocketing energy/food prices because both are as intertwined as the green revolution itself.
We need a revolution in green energy tech and we needed it like decades ago. There’s money in it, there’s a brand new market waiting to be exploited in a complete transportation/infrastructure changover that will require smart taxation, incentives, spending, higher MPG’s, scientists that haven’t got muzzles, less greed, more appreciation for the environment and where things come from and the end result to our actions/inactions, the works. And if we don’t get serious about it now, its going to hurt that much more later on so here’s what we should do.
Do what we can to streamline consumption and that means (Buzz Hargrove, are you listening?) retooling closed factories with manufacturers (I’m up for domestically helped by the government) that are willing to build cars that weigh less than a thousand pounds and run on air/electicity/batteries, lower the traffic speeds to accomodate such veichles, revamp infrastructure for the downsizing of transportation, introduce much higher MPG’s for viechles of all categories and as Harry S has suggested, put in legislation that has incentives/deterences with insurance for drivers that drive viechles “impractically” and look at revamping the education systems in the area of city planning to accomodate the changes.
To not look at these changes means we aren’t getting it. Its about lowering the cost of living, thats the policy we need to focus on more than anything right now as well as green tech driven incomes and it has to come by something other than lowering taxes and running up debt or we’ll face currency dilution/devaluation.
The government should immediately (or any time with a new government in power) start a number of committee’s to get the accurate information needed to form finalized policies/legislation that deals with”
- transporation changes I’ve suggested
- biofuels and targeting the right crops grown to max hydrocarbon production, i.e. sugarcane, potatoes, hemp as alternatives to corn/wheat.
- harvesting pine beetle infestation in BC’s dead forests for pelletization
- furnace conversions from heat to air to heat to water to air exchangers
- the feisability of geothermal heated ADOBE homes
And hold national inquiry into the reason why preventable diseases are skyrocketing in Canada. In other words, this nation is crying for a national food program that deals with outright bans on trans fats, certain preservatives, dyes and other chemicals and its high time the feds budgeted for hard research. Obviously, market forces are not responding and have lost control, its time to look into disease prevention and it begins with what we eat. 2.5 million Canadians now have diabete’s, 1 in 5 natives are diabetics. Fellow Canadians, 7% of us being insulin junkies is way past a crisis, this is unacceptable and the partisan blame game has to stop. We need results and we needed them a decade ago. Its time to take the profit motives out of the equation and start looking at the valuations of life that are priceless. Try our health. 40% of every tax dollar is going to healthcare and most of our diseases are preventable? Lets get on it!
Great article, Garth.
The solution, however is NOT to spend all of our effort figuring out how we’re going to run the cars to keep suburbia going. IT WILL BANKRUPT US!
Just think about what it will cost to maintain some semblance of the overcrowded road network we have today. Municipal budgets were based on the cost of asphalt and construction based on $30 to $50 oil. What will $150 or even $200 oil do to those budgets?
Are you prepared to pay 4 times your current property taxes? Even as someone who is willing to switch to bicycle or walking whenever possible, supporting all of this infrastructure for cars is not something I’ll be able to afford to do in the long-term to stay here in the burbs.
The only other answer is massive tolls that pay enough for the upkeep of roads, so imagine if you drive on any arterial road, you would expect to pay maybe 2-3x today’s 407 toll rate.
The main thing is, we need to learn to live more locally. Smaller schools, instead of big fleets of yellow diesel buses. Smaller distances between housing and jobs. Efficient public transit between major nodes of travel – ignoring windy loopy routes through suburbs. Supporting local agriculture and grow-your-own produce instead of trucking things like strawberries 3000 miles while Ontario berries rot in the fields.
Making things walkable is also a key. In Burlington, we have every neighbourhood NIMBY complaining about intensification – with developers trying to build 29 story towers that disrupt the fabric of the idyllic suburban streets they border on.
Yet, no one whatsoever has complained about the proliferation of single story retail boxes that only leaves small spaces for residential buildings to fit on on our main streets. Where’s the mixed use? Why can’t more people have a choice to live close to transportation and amenities?
We need to end the practice of building single-story retail in our municipal codes forever. Ensure that all retail/commercial developments from now on are either mixed use office or mixed use residential of 3-6 stories. Good examples would be the Dominion store on Front St. across from St. Lawrence Market, or the Best Buy/Cdn Tire that shares its footprint with Ryerson University near the Eaton Centre.
I realize that this is the blog of a federal politician, and these are very much municipal issues, however it’s mostly local action that’s going to get this crisis solved. We currently pay about 8% of our total tax burden to the municipal level. As this crisis evolves, I expect that to change quite substantially.
The federal government of whatever stripe will be largely powerless to do anything about it, except for tweaks like changing tax policy like Dion has proposed, to incent some of the needed actions on the part of individuals who make up our local communities.
Tricia –
The link to the article you mentioned (“Three Parties, Three strategies”) can be found here
Thank you Brain, KPN, and Pyotr for providing the link to the William Marsden article and also for the title of his book. I shall hie me off to the library to borrow a copy. I hope everyone who reads Garth’s blog today will take the time to read the article and compare the differences between the plans. It is an easy and comprehensive read. Knowledge is power. Thanks again guys.
Hey Harry S, I hate to break it to you, but since most bikes have no catalytic converter they spew emissions far worse than most cars, trucks, and SUVs. “In fact, the average motorbike is about 10 times more polluting per mile than a passenger car, light truck or SUV, according to a California Air Resources Board comparison of emissions-compliant vehicles.” http://www.latimes.com/classified/automotive/highway1/la-hy-throttle11-2008jun11,0,3268856.story
This makes it look like a 2008 Caddy STS with the 4.4L V8 pushing out over 460 horses will spew out less junk from it’s tailpipe than most bikes on the road even though you’d probably only get 18MPG on average.
Don’t get me started on two stroke scooters, lawnmowers/lawn equipment, RC vehicles, etc.
Everything can be made to run off of electricity and the mass production of electricity is easier than most people think. Think geothermal. We have 80% of the worlds population at coastlines worldwide. Think tides and geothermal, wind in the interior, hydro in the mountains, geothermal at the pac rim where heat is a plenty.
By brain on 07.06.08 7:26 am
Hi Brain
The other day someone posted a link to geothermal as an alternative. Gather BC has started a geothermal plant. In that link it showed a world map of countries in which geothermal plants were possible. Unfortunately, IIRC, the only area where one could be built in Canada was in BC.
You are wrong Tricia. Burlington is Paddy Torsney territory.
Mike Wallace represents southern Burlington and Paddy is the Lib candidate there. I represent north Burlington, where the cool people live. — Garth
I offer a challenge to anyone who wishes to defend the NDP plan or Conservative plan over the Liberal plan and a debate on the pros/cons of Canada’s political party platforms
brain on 07.06.08 8:46 am
What`s to defend, actually what`s to succeed. Not a single one of them will be successful even if implemented. Many on the blog have repeatedly pointed out the developing world is and will increase GHG emissions faster than any of the plans theoretical reductions on any time line.
There are other reason as well that suggests ultimate failure of carbon tax or trade plans.
Here`s a few questions of which answers seem illusive.
Even if we carbon taxed ever car in Canada off the road the Pine Beetle is still putting out as much CO2 as ever car on the road in Canada, the beetles produce their own fuel and don`t pay taxes.
Melting tundra is projected to release as much GHG as all the cars on the planet.
Each and every plan by each political party has little to zero to do with helping the environment, they are all designed to lure votes, period. You can easily defend that by answering a couple of question on the Dion plan you support.
Because the plan is revenue neutral where will the money to administer it come from sand how much will it cost?
It is well know any conversion to green is above the already finacially exhusted consumer. It has been explanied that the `stuff we don`t want` will be taxed and `the stuff we want` will not be giving the consumer the push to go green.
Unfortunatly the stuff we doin`t want is all we can afford and if we could afford the stuff we wanted we would already have it, iot`s out of most consumers price range. Placing increased costs of going green on the backs of an already broke consumer in not only a bad idea politically it simply won`t work. You`ll only make the stuff we need as expensive as the stuuf we want.
“a debate on the pros/cons of Canada’s political party platforms”
I issued that challenge starting a year ago. Did you miss “what has the federal government done right in the last 40 years”. Still not to late to reply…
Of course the final chuckle, all this “just be respectful” coming from a person that tells people that are concerned about the level of federal governance to shut up.
Personally I believe our elected federal government is beyond repair so the two part statement that best expresses western separation sentiment, `either they go or we go` will likely end as `we go`.
Harry S on 07.06.08 12:03 am
Harry, even if we manage to convert to smaller vehicles the time line won`t alter by more than a decade. We need better solutions that charging more for a smaller package.
You only need read the first post on my blog to see the start of the problems in going smaller.
By kpn on 07.06.08 10:33 am
In Port Moody is the Burrard Geothermal plant. It is used to mostly produce electricity for higher summer demand. I think it was 2 weeks ago or so I read that there was a big concern about the plant reopening as it is one of the lower mainlands biggest contributers to green house gas emmissions.
Garth, your so disingenous it’s sick. Your touted “Green Shift” will actually be substantially more than 7 billion, and not just from Alberta.
Think about it… I’m an oil producer, getting whacked $40 bucks per ton, so I pass that along…
I’m a bottler, having to bear up with an additional $40 bucks per whatever, so I pass that along…
I’m a grocery store, selling pop, but pop with a new buried cost of $40 per however many liters, so I pass it along…
I’m a consumer, paying a higher cost for pop so I can cover the other three above me because they are all trying to recoup the $40, and… wait a minute, I have to pay GST on an additional $40 per ton of CO2…
Yep, I’d say the “Green Shift” is going to make a heck of a lot more than $15 billion for the Libs.
Gotta love that revenue neutral plan of Dions…
Didn’t he say he’s going to put the 2 points back on the GST as well?
Funny how your “Green Shift” Plan fails to prevent any emittors from passing the cost of your carbon tax down the line to the end users.
“We won’t tax you at the Pumps”.
Well, why should you even try, the Oil companies, gas wholesalers, and retailers will do it for you, by embedding the additional cost in the retail price, which inflates your take through the GST, which is just another tax on the fuel tax.
Yep, revenue neutral alright.
Harpers right, this is about screwing everyone, and if the people of Central Canada think they will be missed on the “Green Shift” railway line, all they’ll have to do compare what they paid for product before it’s inception, to what they pay for product afterwards.
Look around your homes idiots… point out one single thing… one item, thats all, that didn’t require a petroleum product in some way shape or form to arrive there.
I assure you, you can’t do it.
“Geezuz! Where do you come up with this stuff? Why don’t you and the rest of the left loonies, tree hugging, polar bear saving, environmental whackos move out to the wilderness live in communes and leave the rest of us alone. You and your ilk would have been great flower children in the 70’s. The biggest threat to our well being at this time is people that actually believe and spew this shit. The economy started tanking when idiots like Al Gore, David Suzuki and the likes of Dion were given a platform by the save the planet media types. Unless we start to wake up from this redistribution of wealth scam we are in for a rough ride.
By Brian Wilson on 07.06.08 9:04 am’
Brian, you obviously have been living under a rock for the past 30 years, or you have never looked at a legitimate piece of scientific research.
Not to worry – your fellow Canadians who do have some living brain cells will do our best to save your sorry ass.
Garth….. what could be more cool than BUBBLES Wallace ? The stuffy folks here in S. Burlington still think that the Harper group are Tories . Poor Mike wont admit this, so he toes the line. How sad !! Methinks he should go back to selling doors and windows !
Solar car costs pennies to drive
By TS on 07.06.08 8:13 am
Conservatives and the oil companies, don’t want cars that cost pennies to drive. Nothing frightens them more than the dream of cheap, clean energy being bought to fruition. What has been foisted upon us by the unholy trinity of neo-cons, Big Oil, and global warming deniers will one day be judged as one of the most reprehensible con-jobs ever perpetrated on humanity. How sad.
By ML on 07.06.08 9:10 am
You are right on ML. I can remember motors designed for cars that took no gas what so ever & those were rejected by the government. As a matter of fact, my husband invested some money into one. It did work. I seen it with my own eyes. Btw, we did loose our investment. The person who designed it couldn’t sell it. Nothing like taking competition right out of the equation.
It is a know fact that Big Oil do not want these motors on the market. They are the ones running the world. In my view,politicians only implement the rules of what big oil tell them to do. Yes, it is sad but true.
Have a nice day!
The future in an oil-free Canada…
A Canada where homes, cars, farms and industry are all powered by renewable energy from the sun, wind, and for those on the west coast of Canada – geothermal.
A Canada where we are free of the mega toxic waste dumps that are fondly called ‘tailing ponds’ by climate change deniers in the Tar Sands.
A Canada where recycling is accepted as ‘just the way we do things’. All plastics etc. are recycled completely so there is no need for oil to produce more.
A Canada where the divisiveness of parochial regional interests are a thing of the past – they disappeared with ‘one trick pony’ oil economies.
A Canada where we can justly apply a ‘carbon import tax’ to ‘dirty’ goods coming in from China, India and other countries that are not accepting their environmental responsibilities.
A Canada where manufacturing jobs are on the rise since high transportation costs now make it practical for local production in all parts of the country.
Not practical? Impossible? Maybe not. Maybe so.
World oil production has stalled at 85 million barrels a day for the past four years. This was first predicted more than 30 years ago by the world’s leading geophysists.
And, today the application of Hubbert’s Curve by some of the world’s leading geophysists indicates that the world will run out of oil by mid century at the latest – and perhaps sooner.
As the oil supply dwindles and oil costs continue to rise the nations of the world will be forced to accelerate production of alternative energy sources like wind, solar, nuclear, and geothermal.
As that development accelerates the need for oil will rapidly disipate, and eventually lead to oil being viewed as whale oil – an archane thing of the past.
The AirCar is going into production in India and Europe this year. The CityZenn is scheduled to be ready for commercial release in 2010. Neither one of these vehicles burns oil.
The future will be here sooner than we think.
“Look around your homes idiots… point out one single thing… one item, thats all, that didn’t require a petroleum product in some way shape or form to arrive there.
I assure you, you can’t do it.
By Joe Calgary on 07.06.08 11:39 am”
Sadly Joe Calgary, you are missing the point entirely. The world is running out of oil. Numerous other posts on Garth’s blog over the past month have provided detailed analysis and input on this fact.
Right now we are in a transition phase as we shift into new techologies that will not require ANY oil in the future. Nuclear, wind, solar, geothermal.
The notion that trucks MUST run on diesel is a lie. Trucks in Europe are beginning to shift to electric and some very interesting developments with fuel cells are a reality now. All major North American truck manufacturers have hybrid trucks available now.
I gues the thought that the world will not need Alberta oil in about 20-25 years probably scares the crap out of you.
Here’s an idea….Why not join the other Alberta separatists so you can all huddle around the campfire in about 20 years and roast prairie dogs while you bitch and wonder what the hell happened?
KPN
We have two feasability studies out for geothermal in the next two housing developments in Whitehorse. In the local paper they pointed out that while it can be used anywhere it was most cost effective in the rocky mountains because the earths crust is thinner here. This makes sense because we have a natural hot springs twenty kms. north of town and another village an hour and a half from here is sitting on an underground lake of hot water. In countries like Iceland where it is already used extensivly it is communal in nature like a boiler in an apartment building. One unit supplies pre-heated water to a number of houses rather than individual units. I’m sure brain and some of the others here can fill you in on the technical end of it.
The people in your neck of the woods should be looking at the experiment in Ireland where a village on a tiny island is getting its electricity from a tidal generator between the island and the mainland. This would probably be the most cost effective alternative power source besides wind power in your region.
Thank you, tricia on 07.06.08 6:55 am for your information…others have already posted the link for members of this blog to read. Excellent article. After reading Garth’s blog yesterday, I did some research on motorized bicycles to reduce the amount of GHG that I’ll not produce by leaving my automobile, that gets very good mileage, in the garage and using it only when absolutely necessary. I don’t have the strength or the youth to manually pedal a bicycle anymore. I’ll buy one for my hubby too so he can reduce the amount of GHG he emits. We already downsized our house and I maintain a garden for fresh produce. I’ll think of other ways my family and I can reduce the imprint we’re making on this planet.
If everyone did likewise, we’d soon turn a corner and hopefully reduce climate change.
It is up to each of us to reduce our imprint so there is a future for generations that come after us.
Dion’s doing a great job! Climate change deniers refuse to believe what their own eyes tell them because it means they’d have to change their lifestyle and that’s just too inconvenient for them!
By William Dahl on 07.06.08 4:36 am
Harry I can’t believe it!!! I read posts from the bottom up to avoid reading those written by yourself and most others because they they are mostly playing at the game of politics without actually proposing anything new as an alternative to the problems we face now. In fact I’m sorry but I always saw you as a twelve year old in my mind based on how you wrote your posts. I hope this is just the beginning of reading more of your new well thought out opinions on Garths topics.
……………………………………………
Thank you for your kind and thoughtful comments, William … however I must take issue with the 12 year old comment. Fyi, in the advertising industry it is well known that if a advertisement is not understood by a 12 year old, it will not be understood by 95% of the general population. You obviously are immune to my messages on this fine forum, and you demand greater mind stimulation, perhaps up to the 18 year old level..!!
I assure you that my comments on our MP Garth’s forum are well thought out and based on reality, rather than the juvenile fantacizing of my more virulent critics. I admit that I am prone to predicting the future rather than reguritating the past ad infinitum and then cursing through uncontrollable feeeelings. You can see this infantile behaviour even on this serious topic thread.
Please try to read my politically-biased postings without a jaundiced eye and appreciate the underlying validity of what I have to say … and don’t bother reading the bleatings of those such as wjp, MWH, PP … the usual bunch of trools …!!!
tricia,
The way you make a link is as follows:
In the window at the top of your screen where the URL address (http://wwww.yada.com) is click on it with your mouse and hold down until you’ve highlighted it from the beginning where it starts http://www.etc.com/to_the_very_end
Then press on your keyboard, the CTRL key at the same time as the letter C. (which is the method one used to COPY something.) Where you want the link to appear in your typing, now press, CTRL at same time as the letter V. That’s the method for getting your link from your computer and pasting into where you’re typing. Try it and see how you do with these instructions.
No the suburbs will not die. Only the seperatist will. Hey Garthe!: BEU!
In Port Moody is the Burrard Geothermal plant.
BY MARC ON 07.06.08 11:29 AM
It’s not Geothermal Marc. It’s Burrard Thermal and it burns natural gas. It’s cleaner than coal but it’s still controversial.
http://www.greenenergybc.ca/bccge_burrard_thermal.html
Garth
Great post, glad we’re past unfortunate words.
One of my worries is rural Canada that again is married to the automobile. We took a trip to Williams Lake recently, which is in the news due to a blowback on our BC carbon tax.
What struck me is nearly everyone drives one of those enormous Dodge Ram like trucks. I cannot believe that everyone is on a farm or ranch outside of the town or requires a Club Cab for their business. I notice the same thing when I visit my Mum in Salmon Arm. It seems to be some sort of status symbol.
There is a truism that most rural communities have no transit or limited transit systems. I don’t think most people realize that trucks have lower emission standards than cars under our current tailpipe regulations.
Anyway, Williams Lake thinks that the carbon tax should not apply to them because they are rural. Well, they may have a point if they tried to offset their carbon footprint. But the mentality is we have clean air NIMBY.
Now the Sunshine Coast my home, was promised a 15% increase in transit funding. You guessed it nada – no increase from the province.
As part of the green shift is there some sort of green rural community Federal funding to address transit infrastructure?
Oh nice bike – but it’s a guilty pleasure. I planted a tree seedling for my road trip. Any thought about a carbon offset for the Hog?
I would like to ask Professor Spencer to explain to me how much $10 or even $40.00 per tonne of carbon is translated into how much per litre of heating oil. I know it will add to the cost of my heating oil but by how much will it be 2cents or 10 cents per litre. He seems to think that this idea of a gas tax will make all the lower and middle cases destitute and of course he doesn’t memtion and income tax offset. How about it give me details
Thanks for the information about the Swiss gentleman and his solar-powered car.
The combination of solar and nano technology for small roof-mounted generators does hold promise.
Canadian progress being made with wind <a href=http://www.cleanfieldenergy.com/docs/BusinessLink_july07%20Are%20You%20Investing%20in%20a%20Clean%20Future.pdf
Doesn’t mean we sit on our fannies and not immediately do things that reduce our imprint … technology ‘may’ produce answers, but until their products have been proven and become widely available, it’s up to each person to reduce the amount of GHG they emit.
Garth, I can see our country albeit enormous in land mass becoming more like England, where everything becomes local beit shopping or pubs. I here where many people do not venture to local city for visits or shopping. Many can take their noon hour to shop and take the goods home. Times are indeed changing, I even read that many ode “hippies who once lived under the same roof very well might to it again for the same reasons….time will tell but we do know this: people will find a way to survive and big business will find a way to accommodate them for the same reasons since the dollar was invented….”profit”
By TS on 07.06.08 11:49 am
The scientific research I read disputes the scientific research you obviously read so take your pompous know it all United Nations Liberal attitude and stick it where the sun really doesn’t shine.
TS writes in part:
By Joe Calgary on 07.06.08 11:39 am”
Sadly Joe Calgary, you are missing the point entirely. The world is running out of oil. Numerous other posts on Garth’s blog over the past month have provided detailed analysis and input on this fact.
======================================
This is not true. The correct statement is the World is running out of cheaper oil sources. Check out the known reported reserves of shale oil in Colorado alone, or the Peace River Oil Sands that unlike the Athabaska Oil Sands are deep under ground which raises the costs for extraction, and other off shore oil deposits that lie under deeper ocean depths.
Then add to that the recent lab experiments with algae which feed on “trash” vegetation to produce an oil similar to Canola that can be extracted and used directly as diesel fuel.
The problem is not a lack of oils but the economics involved in the production to market these. The bigger problem is that the World’s population is expanding rapidly, plus the areas of rapid growth are also as rapidly “modernizing” to an oil energized economy. With this also comes the lack of most environmental controls that we in the Western World have adopted recently, hence the GHG disaster in the making.
The question we are being asked by Mr. Dion, et al. is should we voluntarily unilaterally reduce our 2% contribution to this problem and suffer the economic penalties with out any pro quid quo from developing nations? Will this make China and India or Pakistan, Indonesia, etc. take notice and set them on a similar course? If you can find any precedent to quote, it will be surprising to a great many of us. Will Harper, Bush (and his replacement), Markle, Sarcosy, and Brown make any significant moves to bring China/India et al. onto a path of curbing GHG’s, not very likely at this point.
It is one thing for any Canadian Leader to ask We the People to make sacrifices that will make measurable differences to problems, but it is another thing to ask us to sacrifice our personal financial health and welfare for a cause which can not produce the desired results since it does not tackle the source of the problem. I predict that Canadians will not agree to making a unilateral green shift without a guaranteed equal commitment from the major sources of GHG’s too. It is not logical or justifiable, otherwise. Design and show us your plan to get China and India onside on this problem in a believable format and we will respond positively.
By Canuck on 07.06.08 12:40 pm
Hi Canuck OT but
I was thinking of using my Gordo bucks (that’s what every one is calling the $ 100 bucks in BC) for an electric bike too! I hardly ever drive my fuel efficient car during the week and think this is a good alternative. Make sure you buy a good helmet that has a good safety rating. I always get a charge out of Garth with his beanie helmet. Lucky for him I’m not the significant other – he’d be wearing a full face coverage Bell helmet.
Let me know what you come up with on Garth’s blog.
All this talk makes one thing clear. It’s time to tax the suburbs. As Kunstler says in “The Long Emergency” the suburbs are the single largest misallocation of resources in the history of humankind.
So let’s tax them. Why should an urbanite like myself pay for parking while some suburbanite not pay? Why are property taxes lower in the burbs? Population density is higher in the core, so we should pay less. Urbanites are SUBSIDIZING people in the burbs.
Don’t even get me started on the vapid, dreary life of suburban living which is nothing more than recreational shopping and having “food” at your local food establishment.
Peak Oil will decimate the burbs. The house prices will crash, manicured lawns will become gardens growing food. People will flee those homes, unable to pay for the high heating costs (seen Nat Gas prices lately, way up, is that speculation too?).
When folks fled to the burbs in the 50’s it destroyed the urban core of cities. Now, the same thing will happen but with people traveling the other way. The burbs will decay, home to depressed real estate prices in cardboard homes filled with squatters or shared with 20 people a home. The manicure lawns now turned into gardens for food. The HUGE cost of maintaining the ‘burbs will let the streets and public areas decay into slums. Imagine how much it costs to maintain a km of road in the burbs ? It costs the same as in the city except in the city 1000 taxpayers live on the street, not 25 like in the ‘burbs.
Peak Oil is real. The industry knows it too. Don’t believe me? Then explain to me WHY 80 billion was spent in the Oil Sands this year? Given the high cost of extraction, if there was so much cheap conventional oil, why not go after it? You don’t pick the hard to get fruit..if you can get the low hanging stuff.
BY TRICIA ON 07.06.08 6:55 AM
Hi Tricia,
Thank you for bringing that article to everyone’s attention.. seems BRAIN, KPN, PYOTR and JENNIFER got to it before Greg W., Bill M., and myself. But I’m excused – the Stampede Breakfast tickets I got months ago, turned out to be the best Stampede event I’ve been to in 30 years, and turned into quite a day. Dion was the speaker! We didn’t know that of course until last week or so.
We went up and introduced ourselves to M. Dion and Jeanine. His speech was something to behold – witty, fired up, confident and passionate about The Green Shift – his message was clear, as happens when you really know your stuff. Bring on the debate!
“Stephane Dion is the leader for the times, for a fairer, greener, richer Canada.”
BONNIE L
http://tinyurl.com/5f58je
Hi Bonnie L,
I like your idea – booklet, clippings for friends, family
We saw Dion yesterday! I have to reply to Bonnie N about that, but Dion gave a great speech at the Stampede Breakfast.
The biggest threat to our well being at this time is people that actually believe and spew this shit. The economy started tanking when idiots like Al Gore, David Suzuki and the likes of Dion were given a platform by the save the planet media types. Unless we start to wake up from this redistribution of wealth scam we are in for a rough ride.
By Brian Wilson on 07.06.08 9:04 am
….well, it’s obvious you have no understanding – just repeat and repeat Harper’s rhetoric off the website.
Please try to read my politically-biased postings without a jaundiced eye and appreciate the underlying validity of what I have to say … and don’t bother reading the bleatings of those such as wjp, MWH, PP … the usual bunch of trools …!!!
By Harry S on 07.06.08 12:41 pm
Oh, this is the funniest thing I’ve heard today LOL. Put your dunce cap back on and get back in the corner.
BY BONNIE N BC 07.04.08 2:10PM
Hi Bonnie N,
I asked about The Green Shift Plan. There is a Northern Residents Deduction (NRD) tax benefit for workers who live in the North. Those in the most Northern parts of Canada receive the full deduction while those in an ‘intermediate’ northern zone.
I commented that I’ve learned a lot about the Green Shift and M. Dion from here, and you could see the respect he returns, and with a cute grin and that little reminder of ‘respectful’. Dion has a very warm smile, a kind manner, and he looks very handsome in a cowboy hat – and a heckuva lot better than that dorky Harpo-hat-backward doofus get-up. Dion’s wife Jeanine is lovely, looked fabulous in western dress and boots, and they make a very cute couple – Dion joked with her during his speech – both were very open, sincere, relaxed and charming.
Thanks Canuck for your info. I’ll give it a try and hopefully on my next post I’LL be able to give a link if needed ( Don’t hold your breath though! When it comes to computers I’m a bit of a dud!). Also thanks to Jennifer for the link. So many helpful and thoughtful people.
The people in your neck of the woods should be looking at the experiment in Ireland where a village on a tiny island is getting its electricity from a tidal generator between the island and the mainland. This would probably be the most cost effective alternative power source besides wind power in your region.
By William Dahl on 07.06.08 12:25 pm
Hi William. We do have one – the Annapolis Tidal Generating Station, built in 1980 with federal assistance. It was a pilot project initially
designed to explore harnessing
energy from the sea Its capacity is only 20 MW.
Tidal power attracts new interest in Maritimes
Last Updated: Wednesday, October 19, 2005 | 11:38 AM ET
CBC News
New Brunswick and Nova Scotia have opted into a new study on tidal power that could see underwater turbines installed in the Bay of Fundy and in waters off five U.S. states.
Tidal power has long been talked about in the Fundy region, which boasts of having the highest tides in the world, but new technology means it’s getting a fresh look.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2005/10/19/tidal-power051019.html
Re Wind Turbines, have been trying to locate exact figures on how many are currently in place & how many are planned for Nova Scotia, but in vain. I know they are controversial – great but NIMBY.
We’ve got to get away from using dirty fossil fuels like coal in NS.
Ooops! Bad HTML…Let me try that agaon.
U.S. dollar mighty no more
Experts worry euro might replace U.S. dollar as primary reserve currency
Signs saying “We accept euros” are cropping up in the windows of some Manhattan retailers. A Belgium company is trying to gobble up St. Louis-based Anheuser-Busch, the nation’s largest brewer and iconic Super Bowl advertiser.
The almighty U.S. dollar is mighty no more. It has been declining steadily for six years against other major currencies, undercutting its role as the leading international banking currency. The long slide is fanning inflation in the U.S. and playing a major role in the run-up of oil and gasoline prices everywhere.
Vacationing Europeans are finding bargains in the U.S., while Americans in Paris and other world capitals are being clobbered by sky-high tabs for hotels, travel and even sidewalk cafes. Northern border-city Americans who once flocked into Canada for shopping deals are staying home; it’s the Canadians flocking across the border now.
Everything made in America – from goods to entire companies – is near dirt cheap to many foreigners. Meanwhile, American consumers, both those who travel and those who stay at home, are seeing big price increases in energy, food and imported goods. The dollar has lost roughly a quarter of its purchasing power against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners from its peak in 2002.
Since oil is bought and sold in dollars worldwide, the devalued dollar has made the recent surge in energy prices even worse for Americans, leading to $4 gasoline in the United States (all figures U.S.). Analysts suggest that of the $140 a barrel that oil fetches globally, some $25 may be due to the devalued dollar.
Further declines in the dollar will add to oil’s appeal as a commodity to be traded.
Oil, suggests influential energy consultant Daniel Yergin, is “the new gold.”
The limp greenback has had one big benefit to the U.S. economy: Since it makes American goods cheaper overseas, it has helped manufacturers who export and other U.S. based companies with international reach. Exports have been one of the few bright spots in an otherwise darkening U.S. economy.
…
“Instead of the traditional ‘flight to the dollar’ during a time of instability, there has been a ‘flight to commodities’ in search of stability during a time of currency instability and a falling dollar,” Yergin said. “There’s a painful irony here: The crisis that started in the subprime market in the United States has traveled around the world and, through the medium of a weaker dollar, has come back home to Americans in terms of higher prices at the pump.”
Why does Harper always point his finger?
Didn’t his parents teach him it is impolite to point? Maybe it is his way of giving everyone ‘the finger’?
By Canuck on 07.06.08 12:48 pm
Canuck – I was going to say the same thing, but would also add that she should open an additional browser window besides Garth’s so she can just switch between the windows. I tried looking under the Help in Windows, so that I could provide her with a link but couldn’t find what I was looking for. Hopefully, she’ll ask if she’s still unsure. Years ago I had to write a training manual, with exercises, for a Systems Engineering product and know how precise one has to be.
I assure you that my comments on our MP Garth’s forum are well thought out and based on reality, rather than the juvenile fantacizing of my more virulent critics.
By Harry S on 07.06.08 12:41 pm
IN YOUR DREAMS…..
Have you ever thought well enough to apologize for some of your well thought out comments?
Your perception of reality is not compatible with the real world and that is why apologizing is beneath your mental capacity.
Just a well thought out comment.
Can you imagine some of the regular posters on this forum in a carpool?
By James R. McGillawee on 07.06.08 12:35 am
You know James that’s a great idea except we come from all over the country. Maybe Garth could set up a face to face invitational blogger conference to discuss our visions. A balanced tele-conference with all sides – a virtual town hall meeting.
The next election is so-o-o-o important for the generation that has no voice: our children and in my case, my nieces and nephews.
What a chaotic and awesome experiment that would be! Although, since Harry is a virtual person it would interesting to see who showed up…
By Bonnie N BC on 07.06.08 1:06 pm,
I am not familiar with B.C. but there are parts of this country in which 4-wheel drive vehicles are virtually a necessity in winter. If those people have enough money they may have a second vehicle for summer but many do not and are forced to use the same transportation year round. We traveled through B.C. in the summer and I am sure that it would be a challenge to travel many of these routes in winter.
Hi Barb
Thank you for asking my question – I am aware of the increase for Northerners but I suspect he cannot discuss a North of 60 policy since we have to wait for the writ to drop.
M. Dion has to holdback his cards until the Election.
Hopefully, you don’t get slagged for describing your impressions on the blog but keep thick skinned – just in case. Men don’t always understand the intuitive value of women – not to say there’s any thing wrong with that… (I don’t want to get Garth in any more trouble.)
I am sure M. Dion will come to Vancouver although I have no idea when and I will respectfully address the issue again.
To me, it is essential we treat the North with reality as they are on the frontline dealing with Climate Change.
Thanks folks for the information on connecting links, even though I didn’t request it. I copied it to a file for future reference because I didn’t know how to do it either.
It seems like Dion has been getting his debate after all, even though Harper would rather not participate. Here on this blog, on the CBC Cross Country Checkup right now. It’s been happening since he announced it. Must drive the neandrathals nuts to hear so many people talking about climate change and so many offering solutiobns rather than the status quo.
We traveled through B.C. in the summer and I am sure that it would be a challenge to travel many of these routes in winter.
By C. B. Innes on 07.06.08 4:09 pm
Hello C.B.
Of course, we have winter outside of the Lower Mainland (Vancouver and the Sunshine Coast.)
I have a RAV 4, Toyota front wheel drive and four wheel drive on demand.
We frequently make trips for Christmas in the snowy Interior.
Up mountain passes and treacherous conditions. We don’t need a Dodge RAM to get to our destination.
I get 32 miles per gallon – my baby SUV is the original cross over. It’s based on a Camry chasis and not a truck. I was very careful when I bought this vehicle to ignore the hype for bigger is better ( a V-6) and think about my emissions.
Hi Bill
Just drove our German friend to the airport. He’s got a bid on a rental in Port Hawkesbury, NS and should know next week whether it’ll go through or not. We fly in and out of Germany (cheapest flight thus far – Air Transat – for we in NS) & closest to my hubby’s parents in France. Flights have been 80+ full of Germans & first language on PA is German. Lots of real estate agents here are German, or who cater to Germans. They’ve bought up properties, mostly for summer retreats. Our German friend & his family hope to eventually live & earn a living in Cape Breton. Life is expensive in the EU in comparison to here and many don’t earn, relatively speaking, much more, but they do have good social benefits.
Someone earlier mentioned Martin Weiss so I registered to hear he and 2 or 3 others:
You’re now registered to view Martin Weiss’
The Great American Nightmare:
What Washington Won’t Tell You About
This Unfolding Financial Debacle
Please make a note of this critical information:
Date: Wednesday, July 16
Time: 12 Noon, Eastern Time
At that time, just follow these steps:
1) Between FIVE and TEN minutes before 12 Noon, Eastern Time on Wednesday, July 16, click on this link
http://moneyandmarkets.stream57.com/JULY16/
or copy and paste it into a new browser window.
2) Enter your email address, first name and last name.
3) Click Enter and wait for the application to connect.
To verify that you will be able to listen to the presentation, please click on this link http://web.stream57.com/conntest or copy and paste it into a new browser.
That’s it! Be sure to print and save this information so you’ll have your instructions and link handy when it’s time to login. If you experience any technical difficulties, please call 877-843-9272.
I’ve been really lazy lately and haven’t checked on our investments. But, IIRC, we haven’t gained much in the last 10 years. I wanted to go into a more conservative fund. Our finance guy suggested we go with another plan which only had 20% in US stocks. When I read the plan it said there were 25% US holdings. Not sure what to do. I almost feel like chucking it and going with GIC’s. Rationally I know that’s not the way to go, but emotionally ??? Got to make some decisions soon. We’re just middle class and don’t have a huge amount invested. We aren’t really relying on these investments to survive but still.
BTW, am in the house as its too hot outside for me. Luckily we have shade trees and don’t have to use an air conditioner.
By Brian Wilson on 07.06.08 2:05 pm
The scientific research I read disputes the scientific research you obviously read…”
Links please.
There is no such SCIENTIFIC research.
Spend some time reading this.
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/02/27/global_warming_deniers/
I will be watching for your links.
It’s been happening…
By ML on 07.06.08 4:48 pm
What did I say the other day? Its a HAPPENING! LOL This Blog is the ultimate HAPPENING and it should have happened long ago.
Garth, how’s the Crotch Rocket doing?
Can you imagine some of the regular posters on this forum in a carpool?
By James R. McGillawee on 07.06.08 12:35 am
Bumper cars at the CNE midway. Great way to dissipate all the aggression…
KPN….. my wife and I cashed out most of our US stock based mutual funds in early August 2007. We parked the money in a monthly interest account waiting for the right time to reinvest.
We were holding onto one US small cap fund but sold that one last week as well. We put the proceeds into cash paying monthly interest as well.
Our move out of US equities last Auguest has saved us well over $30,000 in losses in our retirement savings accounts.
I don’t think we will be reinvesting in the US stock market until the spring of 2009 at the absolute earliest. The US market is a disaster and it will take more than the election of Obama to give Americans some optimism.
We are now watching global economic metrics very carefully, and we are poised to cash out all of our remaining stock funds very quickly if needed. The paperwork has all been drawn up and all that’s needed is for us to sign the forms to execute the sell orders.
It is our growing view that we are not witnessing a typical downturn in business cycles, but rather a fundamental shift in global economics brought on by high energy costs.
I have been doing considerable research on the world oil production capacity and I have not read anything that leads me to believe that the price of oil will moderate.
The next big shift is definitely going to be away from oil and towards electric power – with future generation coming from solar, wind, tide, and geothermal sources. Some of those technologies are too new to risk RRSP investments. So, we may be parking our money for a year or perhaps two until we can better assess what is going on.
Most financial planners and mutual fund managers only look at the past when trying to predict the future. Rather than do that I think its more important to properly assess larger trends and invest just infront of those trends.
Supposedly true, although it can be interpreted as a joke (FM = Family Member; ANZ = Bank).
****************************************
DEAD COLLECTORS?
A lady died this past January. ANZ bank billed her for February and March for their annual service charges on her credit card, and then added late fees and interest on the monthly charge.
The balance had been $0.00, but now was around $60. A family member placed a call to the ANZ Bank:
FM: ‘I am calling to tell you that she died in January.’
ANZ: ‘The account was never closed and the late fees and charges still apply.’
FM: ‘Maybe you should turn it over to collections.’
ANZ: ‘Since it is two months past due, it already has been.’
FM: ‘So, what will they do when they find out she is dead?’
ANZ: ‘Either report her account to the frauds division or report her to The credit bureau, maybe both!’
FM: ‘Do you think God will be mad at her?’
ANZ: ‘Excuse me?’
FM: ‘Did you just get what I was telling you . . . the part about her being dead?’
ANZ: ‘Sir, you’ll have to speak to my supervisor.’
Supervisor gets on the phone.
FM: ‘I’m calling to tell you, she died in January.’
ANZ: ‘The account was never closed and the late fees and charges still apply.’
FM: ‘You mean you want to collect from her estate?’
ANZ (stammer): ‘Are you her lawyer?’
FM: ‘No, I’m her great nephew.’ (Lawyer info given.)
ANZ: ‘Could you fax us a certificate of death?’
FM: ‘Sure.’ After they get the fax:
ANZ: ‘Our system just isn’t set up for death. I don’t know what more I Can do to help.’
FM: ‘Well, if you figure it out, great! If not, you could just keep billing her. I don’t think she will care.’
ANZ: ‘Well, the late fees and charges do still apply.’
FM: ‘Would you like her new billing address?’
ANZ: ‘That might help.’
FM: ‘Rookwood Memorial Cemetery , 1249 Centenary Rd, Sydney Plot Number 1049.’
ANZ: ‘Sir, that’s a cemetery!’
FM: ‘Well, what the F#@! do you do with dead people on your planet?’
****************************************
An ad on a radio station here says: “Diapers, like oil changes and politicians, should be changed often!”
Not a knock at Garth, Dion or any DECENT politicians!
****************************************
“The currency upon which most of the world’s economies ultimately rely … the world’s reserve currency — the U.S. dollar is about to get trashed again, big time.”
PYOTR PETROBITCH, 9:48 am
Thanx for the link, Pyotr and I fully concur with it.
Combined with the greenback’s 41% slide in value since dubya’s first G8 summit in 2001, we’re already on the rollercoaster, it’s gaining speed and most folk won’t even recognize it until way past the show ends.
Gold may eventually soar to $5,000; silver and platinum will rise in unison, oil, commodities and food prices will greatly increase, so what does this mean for us average folk?
Well, there’s not much we can do — EXCEPT — stay out of debt, live a lot more frugally than most of us are used to and simply try to get by, although reading other comments here, it seems as if hundreds of thousands of people are a bricks short of full loads.
There are a few reasons why we will rent after our son, DIL and two grandchildren have moved on next year, not the least of which is no property taxes to pay.
Ours went up just over 5%, and will continue going up for the next few years. Rent increases? Sure, but no exterior work to be bothered with, and no PT.
By Bonnie N BC on 07.06.08 4:58 pm,
We drive a CRV which gets about the same mileage as you do which we need in the winter. However, we would have a smaller vehicle if we did not need it in the winter.
There are people here that have large trucks mainly because they have a specific need for carrying capacity. Don’t condemn someone just because they have large trucks. There may be a few people who have them simply because of “ego” but they also needed to have lots of money to go with the ego even before the current large blip in gas prices.
TS writes in part:
By Joe Calgary on 07.06.08 11:39 am”
Sadly Joe Calgary, you are missing the point entirely. The world is running out of oil. Numerous other posts on Garth’s blog over the past month have provided detailed analysis and input on this fact.
======================================
This is not true. The correct statement is the World is running out of cheaper oil sources. Check out the known reported reserves of shale oil in Colorado alone, or the Peace River Oil Sands that unlike the Athabaska Oil Sands are deep under ground which raises the costs for extraction, and other off shore oil deposits that lie under deeper ocean depths.
By James R. McGillawee on 07.06.08 2:09 pm”
Sorry to burst your optimistic ballon James, but the projected global oil reserves INCLUDING all of the sources you mention total about one trillion barrels. According to Hubbert’s Curve this means that we have burned up about half of the oil resources.
If you follow leading geophysists, that means the earth has enough reserves to last until 2050 if we are lucky.
You are singing the song that the media is being fed by Big Oil…”don’t worry everything will be alright”.
The fact is that world oil production has peaked at 85 million barrels a day since 2004. Countries like Saudi Arabia have not found a drop of new oil in well over a decade and their mammouth reserves are dwindling.
The Canadian Tar Sands is an environmental disaster in terms of the pollution it is creating in its so-called ‘tailing ponds’ – in reality toxic stew. The Tar Sands is consuming huge amounts of fresh water and natural gas…in effect turning gold into lead by taking a more fuel efficient fuel (natural gas) and wasting it to create dirty oil.
There is a strong environmental movement in the US to try and stop any development of oil shale and tar sands in the US. Why? Because they see the disaster we are allowing to happen in this country.
Just had an argument with my hubby about Dion’s plan, tho he knows nothing about it. Sent him the link, but he won’t read it. To him its a tax. Tried to tell him that all other parties want to put a tax – in one way or another – yep even our neocon govt. the cons – on fossil fuels and GHG’s. He finally said he’ll not vote. Gees, for someone from France who has for the last 20 yrs lamented the apathy of Cdns to protest, what can I say. I know he is not a climate change denier but he hears the word tax and he goes bolistic. He even brought up the Canada free tax day. When I pointed out that the taxes we pay go for health care, infrastructure, etc. he didn’t have a retort. Eeh gad, France’s taxes & most of the EU are higher than ours are. Look at the quality of life in most of the scandinavian countries and how Norway and the majority of countries have benefited for their oil. They didn’t kiss the asses of big oil like Alberta has.
Nuf said, its 7:15 and I’ve got to tend to the BBQ. Have a great night everyone.
Brain 10:02
You made some really good points and solutions in your post.
The things I found most interesting from that article were:
1.At some point we will have to release the pent up inflation in our economies.
2. Most unsecured debt like credit cards will ultimately be uncollectable and should be written off like third world debts. In other words short term pain for long term gain. Unfortunately they did not suggest what future penalties cardholders should pay.
3. A need to change laws regarding forclosures and bankruptsies. Obviously the reporter looked at 1929 and America repeating the same mistakes today and realizes correctly that being proactive will result in far less pain than is going to be the case doing nothing.
I didn’t pick up on the deflation thing because it read pretty much what I know about the subject that it was the product of the 1929 crash and once it starts there is no stopping it. Your Japanese model sounds promising as long as the problems they face are the same as ours. We have hosted over a dozen Japanese exchange students for two week intervals through our local collage and two things that stand out are their sense of money and shock at how much space we live in. We live in an average sized three bedroom house that has grown too small for 5 adults by our standards yet would house two families in Japan. Because their living space is so small they don’t buy near as much crap as we do and tend to own limited amounts of high quality goods that they use all the time. Most of their personal debt is tied up in loooooong term mortgages and cars if they can afford one. They are also used to paying a much higher price for food like 2 dollars for a single apple and mostly use mass transit for transportation. As far as I know they don’t have near the amount of unsecured debt that we do. Also the biggest cause of deflation in their society is that they already have a much larger aging population that don’t consume like a twenty year old anymore. This is another one of those big factors entering our society and it will be interesting to see if your model will work here.
There is no question we need to let inflation rise to 5% which is roughly its normal level or face masssive deflation if we don’t. I suspect that if we just start measuring it realistically we might be above that mark now. I nearly choked on my tea a couple of months ago when the radio announced January inflation levels were down because of the lower cost of new cars!!!! Like everyone buys a new car every month!! We need to start measuring only those items we use on a recurring basis if we want to know where we stand today. Other items that we don’t purchase often could be monitored seperatly and I wouldn’t be surprised if we are in deflation for those items.
I’ve got to go now and will finish replying to the rest of your post in the morning when I get home from work.
BTW, am in the house as its too hot outside for me. Luckily we have shade trees and don’t have to use an air conditioner.
kpn, 5:01 pm
Hello KPN.
Two things I have noticed, moreso than ever this year.
Less than seven years ago, there was a large wasp’s nest hanging from our roof, but this year for the first time — no bees, wasps or yellowjackets.
Eerie silence is all there is. Not as many birds, either.
Second, this is the first summer either of us can remember when it’s been below normal in the OK Valley.
No doubt about it; it’s really nice to walk, but we haven’t used the A/C anywhere near as much as previous years.
Whatever it is, something really strange is going on.
****************************************
. . . the usual bunch of trools …!!!
howling howitzer hairy, 12:41 pm
hairy honey, why don’t you refer to all of us as The Usual Suspects, as we all make sense in the real world?
Your rantings, as enjoyably funny as they are, actually show you to be a crossbreed, a mixture of quantum physics gone wrong, along with a lesbian-frog-queer-toad and a sprinkling of hu-manwoman-ity thrown in for good measure.
Nevertheless, you are good for a laugh, so do continue!
hairy honey, why don’t you refer to all of us as The Usual Suspects, as we all make sense in the real world?
Your rantings, as enjoyably funny as they are, actually show you to be a crossbreed, a mixture of quantum physics gone wrong, along with a lesbian-frog-queer-toad and a sprinkling of hu-manwoman-ity thrown in for good measure.
Nevertheless, you are good for a laugh, so do continue!
By Charles Oxley on 07.06.08 6:43 pm
ROTFLMAO . Too funny Charlie. Too friggin’ funny !
Charles it sounds just like Rachel Carson’s book ‘Silent Spring ‘. Written and published in 1962 . Frightening .
One of the first books to ring the bell on global change .
Most financial planners and mutual fund managers only look at the past when trying to predict the future. Rather than do that I think its more important to properly assess larger trends and invest just infront of those trends.
By TS on 07.06.08 5:58 pm
Thanks TS for your comments. You are so right, all I’ve heard is that there are bumps in the road, but look at the last X number of years of performance and you have to be in it for the long term. A few years ago we borrowed $30K. to invest, in addition to what we had already invested. Use ‘other people’s money’!!!. We had the money to back it up. Now that I’ve rec’d my CPP since Nov. & uncomfortable with the market, we’re paying that loan off $1K a month. Call us naive, but I just don’t like a debt on our heads at our age. My DH is 52. And, I’m becoming anxious about the markets. Fortunately, my pension is indexed and we have 0 DEBTS, but even still. Guess I’ve become cynical and have little trust in anything I read/hear.
Yum – enjoying my local strawberry desert.
By Charles Oxley on 07.06.08 6:02 pm
ROFLMAO! Thanks Charles. A CLASSIC for sure!
There are people here that have large trucks mainly because they have a specific need for carrying capacity. Don’t condemn someone just because they have large trucks. There may be a few people who have them simply because of “ego” but they also needed to have lots of money to go with the ego even before the current large blip in gas prices.
By C. B. Innes on 07.06.08 6:05 pm
Oh C.B.
I agree. My brother-in-law has one of those truck Cab biggy things because he is a cabinet maker specializing in kitchens.
But there seems to be a group think that so-called Dodge Rams are the “cool thing” to have. Honestly, don’t you think that some would be influenced by peer pressure?
I have no empirical evidence just what I saw. But I did offer an alternative – my vehicle a small footprint. It’s not a ranch or farming vehicle – but an alternative to large inefficient vehicles for the un-farmer, the un-rancher and the un-business operator.
Sorry, not everyone needs a truck to live in Williams Lake. I don’t know how to articulate this politely…
Why? Because it’s emotional and not logical.
Hello KPN.
Two things I have noticed, moreso than ever this year.
Less than seven years ago, there was a large wasp’s nest hanging from our roof, but this year for the first time — no bees, wasps or yellowjackets.
Eerie silence is all there is. Not as many birds, either.
Second, this is the first summer either of us can remember when it’s been below normal in the OK Valley.
No doubt about it; it’s really nice to walk, but we haven’t used the A/C anywhere near as much as previous years.
Whatever it is, something really strange is going on.
By Charles Oxley on 07.06.08 6:43 pm
Hi Charles. Have seen a wasp or 2 this year, but we’ve had another very wet and cool spring in NS. We have had lots of birds. Was up at 6 am and had the back patio door open and commented to DH how I loved hearing all the bird songs. He had been up an hour or 2 earlier than I and said they were singing even before dawn. We have a couple of hanging feeders for the little black cap chickadeess (sp?), yellow finches, pine siskinds, etc. We caught one of our little red squirrels yesterday trying to bite the plastic from which one feeder hangs. Little does he know there’s a metal wire beneath. They have been so frustrated by the feeder (after DH adjusted it) it is so amusing to watch them. We do feed them separately during the winter.
Charles, I too have heard that your weather temps have been below normal. Even, Victoria and Vcr. Our weather has been the same for the last several years during the spring. This past winter was not bad, but I can recall the first few winters here – 76 -79 maybe, I seldom wore winter boots. Sorry for my long posts. I do get carried away
BTW someone told my DH to hang a brown paper bag near your house to deter wasps as they assume its another ‘colony’ and won’t start another one in the vacinity. Apparently it has worked for his friend for several years. I asked about rain but he couldn’t respond. Sure there is an equivalent plastic one.
‘Night again.
Sorry, not everyone needs a truck to live in Williams Lake. I don’t know how to articulate this politely…
Why? Because it’s emotional and not logical.
By Bonnie N BC on 07.06.08 7:21 pm
Bonnie – I see the same here in NS. Have known some who really don’t need them for work, and wouldn’t want to get a scratch in the back of them. I think its a macho thing. Both our vehicles are 4 cylinders. Our german friend, 6′4″. about 280 lbs often drives his wife’s Smart car & says there’s more leg room than ours. ??? I’ll be going smaller or electric if mine goes to the graveyard. Its only 8 years old (less than 130K)so it may outlive me
.
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080706/alberta_dion_080706/20080706?hub=Canada
“Stephane Dion spoke to about 100 participants at the Canadian Youth Climate Coalition conference at the University of Alberta.”
Out selling the plan eh Steph? So whats next for Dion and his western sales pitch? A barbecue with all the liberals in Alberta. I’m sure he will be able to convince all 10 of them that his plan is good.
If Dion thinks he is going to shut down the oil sands then he should at least have the integrity to go to Ft McMurray and try to pitch the plan to them.
Go to down town Calgary and talk to the common folk on the street and see if his plan will sell there.
Preaching to the choir is not selling the plan. Try talking to those whose livelihood will be affected.
Of course he won’t. He already got taken out by Gormley in Sask. Rutherford would shred him.
Hi Judy,
Be glad to respond as best I can. 1st. I do not trust the Libs to come through on the tax cuts. Besides they are paltry compared to the tax to be levied. I stand to gain maybe 500 in tax diffs. over a year while my commute in a 35k/gallon car (with my wife who works at the university library) will cost me approximately $700 more per year. So I am already out 200.00. 2nd. Why? Because I do not believe the carbon tax will not affect the pump price. It will be passed on by the gas companies. 3rd. I also believe the tax to be duplicating our BC carbon tax and it will not be harmonized regardless of what Dion says. Again, trust is the factor. I no longer trust the Libs on anything. I have very good, non-partisan, reasons for this lack of trust. Any objective overview of the actual history of government in this country in the past ten years of Liberal government would yield a list of abuses for which the Libs have yet to adequately answer for. How I vote next election is still up in the air, but it won’t be Liberal because they have been caught to many times making promises they did not keep and diverting public funds to party causes. Unlike many Canadians, politically, I have a long memory. Finally, as an upper middle class earner I pay enormous taxes every year and I refuse to pay more. I have worked long and hard to get where I am. I undertook and paid for 4 degrees on my own, three of them advanced ($60,000 total cost). I have paid my dues, my student loans and my taxes through all of that. I have slung burgers, boxes, cookies in boxes, cut grass, lifeguard, cleared parks etc. to earn the right to provide my family with the best opportunity for their success. If someone wants to tax me further, they are going to have to offer me more reasons than dubious science, fear mongering and social programs. I am Canadian born and raised, love my country and would die in battle to protect her, but I’ll be damned if I will give another Liberal the chance to tax me ever again. If the conservatives plan to do the same to me, my response will be the same. I PAY ENORMOUS TAXES, WILLINGLY, ALREADY. The proposed tax cut in this green shift is far short of what I will end up paying!
Shall I say more! There is much more trust me!
By Charles Oxley on 07.06.08 6:43 pm
There’s a very simple reason you are having a cold summer so far this year, and it isn’t very satisfying – it’s your turn.
Quick background – I’m a practicing operational meteorologist and climatologist in my 40th year in the business in Canada
At latitude 50 North in the summer over Canada, there usually is a stream of cold air flowing south from the arctic off the west coast, a complementary northward flow of warm air over the western plains, another southward flow through Hudson’s Bay, and a northward flow on the east coast – 2 complete waves as it were. This wave pattern contines around the globe. These flows act in company with the ocean currents to try to equalize the imbalance of heat between the atmosphere’s equator, and the poles.
Because of the shape and arrangements of the continents, and the size of the earth, this pattern is never perfectly stabilized, the troughs and ridges get broader, get narrower, shift east and west, and sometimes disappear. From time to time they do get quite settled for an extended periods of time, and if you are stuck in the ridge you get hot and your forest burns like crazy, and if you are stuck in the trough you have a cold spell, and if you are stuck in the middle, you get one storm after another. Eventually, the global circulation shifts and adjusts, so it never lasts for ever, it just feels like it.
You may recall in a discussion I had with Gord a while back, I talked about a bimodal pattern to the temperature record. What this means is that you find periods of time when the temperatures hang around below the ‘normal’ – if you look at the weather maps during this period, you will find that you are in the trough. Conversely, there are periods when the temperature are running above normal – and lo and behold you are in the ridge.
Going back to the pattern of troughs and ridges, the strength, orientation, location, etc are quite well correlated with changes in the ocean currents – and these are still not as well understood as you would think – there really aren’t enough people doing research – and this is a personal bitch of mine – too much of what is being done is being done with computer models and not enough is being done out on the oceans. Real ocean research is very expensive, and not very sexy, so funds for a cruise are hard to come by.
I hope this helps you to understand why you are having a crappy summer – its nothing personal, it’s just your turn.
Without question, something beyond our capabilities to cope with is happening behind our backs, and there is nothing we can do about it, no matter what party we follow.
The link follows after the para.:
“As the global bankers’ plan to bring down the American and world’s economy continues (so that they can acquire as much of our wealth as possible at ‘fire sale’ prices — an old strategy), the world is facing another much worse danger. A regional war in the Middle East that will involve global strategic weapons of mass destruction with deaths in the hundreds of millions in North America, Europe, the Middle East and globally.”
http://tinyurl.com/64scsk
****************************************
To a lesser extent, this goes with the previous link. One thing remains constant — the longer carney, harpo and CRAP stay where they are, the quicker Canada falls.
http://www.dldewey.com/wakeup.htm
By Janice on 07.06.08 8:08 pm
So Janice
Did you go to his Town Hall meeting?
I believe if you are willing, you might listen to a positive message. I have faith that you could listen to a point of view other than the Death Star.
So will you go to a Town Hall meeting with Stephane Dion?
Could you just consider it?
Of course he won’t. He already got taken out by Gormley in Sask. Rutherford would shred him.
By Janice on 07.06.08 8:08 pm
JANICE
What a bunch of fear mongering nonsense but if you don’t have the intelligence to debate the issue then you have to resort to personal attacks and fear mongering.
What is Harper’s plan? Status quo won’t ‘git her done” as we like to say here in Alberta.
Truth is we need a price on carbon -big oil knows it and is asking for it, just ask CAPP who represents the oil patch here in Alberta and across Canada.
The Green Shift Plan brings certainty to a volatile market but Harper is not smart enough to plan, for his plan is just a knee jerk response like when George tells me it’s OK, then my government will follow the USA?
No Janice the only thing that needs to go through the shredder is Harpers “do nothing until George tells me plan” for our environment.
Here in Alberta the word on the street is that the Dion plan is having great impact on the Harper back room and they will be announcing something to respond over the summer early fall?
Garth don’t you dare APOLOGIZE to anyone -your opinion hit the nail on the head. Separatists are TRAITORS to Canada and deserve every name they have been called.
If all you Neville Chamberlains’ want political correct, then go somewhere else -this is political OPINION and it deserves to be heard.
Rudder-ford would shred him.
BY JANICE ON 07.06.08 8:08 PM
Janice admits to listening to an infotainment talk show for her news so that answers a lot. Unfortunately many have assumed that particular radio talk show host, and those who call into his program regularly are representative of Albertans. However it’s a radio show with a host who enjoys the celebrity of maintaining the status quo for the Alberta establishment, and in no way reflects, and generally projects a false image of real Albertans to the rest of the country. No wonder Janice is so brainwashed. Question answered.
BONNIE N BC 07.06.08
Hi again Bonnie, I kept my post brief and I didn’t add that at the event I’d bumped into my riding candidate first. She answered the question, that it was on the website. And as it was, I only had time to say my own comment to him. It would have been awkward to ask two questions.. you know how that goes, with so many people around wanting to talk.
Sorry ’bout that, I apologize for not realizing how more specific you wanted it to be asked.
So it wasn’t a matter of ‘cannot discuss’ it’s just that I thought I had the answer you wanted.
I PAY ENORMOUS TAXES, WILLINGLY, ALREADY. The proposed tax cut in this green shift is far short of what I will end up paying!
Shall I say more! There is much more trust me!
By Spencer on 07.06.08 8:12 pm
Thats ok Spencer. just explain to your grand kids how the taxes where too high so you burned up their world.
It will not be pretty.
Spencer: Why do you rant as if you are different than any other hard-working Canadian. We all worked hard to achieve what we have not just the upper income earners. So get over yourself.
Are you saying you cannot conserve any more than you already do, or are you saying you refuse to conserve any more?
I believe we can all find ways to save $$$.
It may be your right to buy gas guzzlers, 5000 square foot homes, distant vacation destinations, fossil fuel burning toys, etc,, but with that right you also can expect the consequences—higher taxes on your excesses and a small income tax break.
Sorry–but those who play will have to pay.
Janice: Have you asked Harper to make his anti-Ontario pitches in Toronto?
And of course the audience must be bi-partisan–not the choir he usually preaches to.
Just read this column by Eric Margolis and realize that if he is correct then a green shift and carbon taxes will be the least of your worries very soon!
http://www.torontosun.com/News/Columnists/Margolis_Eric/
Oil @ $5oo.xx/barrel will be more effective than any rationing plan yet already! So go enjoy what you have while you still have it!
Spencer: Weren’t you just complaining about your 20 minute commute to work–and your poor parents–and your needy children?
With all your dough you should be helping your parents and your kids—get together and have a family meeting–come up with fuel saving ideas.
You sound like a smart man–put your thinking cap on ( as my grade 1 teacher used to say)
It seems that the world’s largest car manufacturer (or is that now second to Toyota) is catching on. Winds of change are a blowin’:
Just received this (no pix, but one Cdn. flag; one red and blue condom)
*****************************************
New Government Seal Official Announcement:
The government today announced that it is changing its emblem from a Maple Leaf to a CONDOM because it more accurately reflects the government’s political stance.
A condom allows for inflation, halts production, destroys the next generation, protects a bunch of pricks, and gives you a sense of security while you’re actually being screwed.
Damn, it just doesn’t get more accurate than that!
Ya, that will be a good flag if the Libs ever get in for sure!
barb the proof reader
Define “real Albertan” please.
Syncro
Judy,
Another arrogant, tax me now Liberal. You asked for reasons, now give me a better one to vote Liberal. Should not have said anything about my personal life of course. I paid my dues so you can just go jump off a pier ya thoughtless liberal! My personal info was for illustrative purposes only. You F777ing Liberals want a debate bu when people try to give you their point of view all you can do is find reason to belittle them. Happens all the time on here! I don’t expect or want your sympathy or derision. I want a rational debate not divisive partisanship!
0 for 8 in the thinking department, lets guess how he votes!
To brain on 07.06.08 7:52 am
I’d say Alliance.
James R. McGillawee, 9:55 pm
Thanks for the link, James.
Add it to a slumping dollar, it is evident that things are moving ahead at lightning speed now.
http://tinyurl.com/6kzqtv
Wrong on all counts!
A REASONABLE CAR, 2003 SUNBIRD 35-40K/GALLON.
A MODEST HOME, 2400 SQ FT FIVE OCCUPANTS ENERGY EFFICIENCY EVERYWHERE POSSIBLE.
NO REC VECHS.
WE RECYCLE AND HAVE INVESTED IN ALTERNATIVE POWER WHERE WE CAN.
PLANNING TO DO MORE UNLESS THIS BLOODY TAX GETS APPROVED. THEN WE ARE SCREWED!
BUT NONE OF THIS EQUALS A VOTE FOR DION. LIBS HAVE TO ANSWER MY QUESTIONS RE: CORRUPTION. BUT NONE OF YOU LIBS WILL TAKE THIS ON. ALL YOU CAN DO IS BELITTLE AND DISMISS. YOU PEOPLE DON’T WANT A DEBATE. YOU WANT MERE AGREEMENT ON YOUR POLICY WITHOUT OBJECTION. BLIND OBEDIENCE TO GOVERNMENT CONTROL. SOCIALISM IS DEAD AND THE LIBERAL PARTY OF CANADA WILL GO WITH IT IN THE NEXT ELECTION.
ALL HARD WORKING CANADIANS WILL EXPRESS THEIR VIEWS IN THE NEXT ELECTION. I’LL TALK TO YOU ALL THEN AND WE’LL SEE!
By Brammer on 07.06.08 5:14 pm
Yawn!!! Another PHD trying to sell books. As Barnum and Bailey used to say “theres a sucker born every minute” Another Liberal nutcase.
Rudder-ford would shred him.
BY JANICE ON 07.06.08 8:08 PM
by Barb the proof-reader on 07.06.08 8:57 pm
Well, Barbie, I see you put my name to your statement. Thats a pretty typical liberal deception.
And yes Barbie, I do listen to the radio. And Barbie, if you pretend to know the mind of Albertans, you obviously don’t know the results of the last election.
The libs were decimated. There’s your answer.
By Spencer on 07.06.08 10:20 pm
You F777ing Liberals want a debate but when people try to give you their point of view all you can do is find reason to belittle them. Happens all the time on here! I don’t expect or want your sympathy or derision. I want a rational debate not divisive partisanship!
………………………………………………
Watch out, Spencer … the neuro-psycho-whacko-sickos on this fine forum provided for us by our MP Garth is anything but a forum for discussion and debate. It’s more like a Libber-Dipper cesspool filled with political losers on the verge of performing sepukku .. after the next election.
The Canadian federal government requires a solid enema flush to rid it of all the Liberal detritus that clogs it’s workings and robs Canadians of their tax dollars. Remember there is only one taxpayer .. drawn and quartered by taxation from three levels of over-government. Of course Canadians are suckers for promises if they only paid more taxes … Tax Me, I’m Canadian .. and Canadians get the government they deserve .. but let’s see if a new Conservative majority government can deliver a leaner, cleaner federal government after the next election .. October 19, 2009.
Of course he won’t. He already got taken out by Gormley in Sask. Rutherford would shred him.
By Janice on 07.06.08 8:08 pm
Rutherford????? Geeez Janice you are the perfect sucker that defines his audience.
By Brian Wilson on 07.06.08 10:42 pm
Thanks. Your deep thought and insight has been noted.
Syncro,
Why?
BY JANICE 07.06.08 10:49 PM
Well Janice, I know plenty of Albertans who are completely fed up with the Conservatives selling out our province’s profits to big oil. The Cons here are in big oil’s pockets, and always have been. It’s just more obvious now, and Albertans have caught on to it. People suspected but it just took some people longer than others. People in Alberta, people everywhere here, are getting mad. We know we are being lied to by the Conservatives.
I’m an Albertan Janice, and my elected MLA is an Alberta Provincial Liberal.
Janice, who are you saying you represent? Or are you just pretending? I’ve asked you before Janice, and I’ll ask for the third time Janice, what province are you in?
Ah Harry, now I can sleep in peace!
Tricia,
Or for anyone else that’s looking for a super-cheap way to go to the store, pick up some groceries and not have to use gasoline to do it:
Don’t buy a really cheap bike from places like Canadian Tire who do offer them for sale. Those cheap bikes don’t hold their charge. You wouldn’t be able to go much further than TO the store if you live in a rural community and are 3-4 miles away from the store if you buy one from them. Get a better bike from places like Blue Avenue.ca> ($799 Sweet 16 model) which has shorter charging times 40-45 KM range between charges. A lithium battery is the best. Daymak makes reliable plug-in electric bikes. What they cost to buy will be quickly recovered by them not using gasoline and spewing more GHG into the air.
—
KPN. I too dumped all my US mutual funds and reinvested the money in safer Canadian funds that according to my bank manager daughter are more reliable. (Replaced the US mutual funds with Cdn Bonds and increased my Bank Dividend Growth fund. I also now have a very small portfolio that includes a European growth that that I’m carefully watching based in Euros–a rising currency rather than a US falling currency.
Because of my age, I cannot afford for my portfolio to decrease in value. All of my funds tend to be very low risk which don’t pay big bucks, but on the other hand, don’t decrease in value.
By C. B. Innes on 07.06.08 4:09 pm
“I am not familiar with B.C. but there are parts of this country in which 4-wheel drive vehicles are virtually a necessity in winter.”
I remember going hunting with the boys one year when we camped up an unassumed fire road near Powassan in northern Ontario. It dumped about a foot of snow after we arrived, and the boys had considerable difficulty getting their pick-up trucks back out. One of them went out and tried to get back in, but had to abandon his truck at the bottom of a particularly steep hill and hike the rest of the way in.
Me and my little front wheel drive Chevy Citation, on the other hand, got through all that snow as quick as you please. Lickity split, no problems.
Front wheel drive, proper snow tires, and learning to drive in Ottawa in February will take you far, my friends.
…
BTW, for those of you who don’t believe that Dion’s carbon tax won’t affect the price of gasoline, keep in mind that the price of oil is set internationally and has nothing to do with the production costs of individual oil fields. If it did, then oil from the oil sands would sell for exponentially more than oil from Saudi Arabia.
In fact, oil production is probably the only sector of the energy industry that WON’T be able to pass the costs on to the consumer.
I explain all this in more detail here.
In this thread, there’s been a lot of discussion about switching to electric cars.
Let’s try to understand some of the issues here.
Electric cars still consume energy, which needs to be generated and transmitted. Any large scale switch to electric (or plug-in hybrid) will put additional strain on an already stressed electrical system. Aside from the need for additional generation, which will take years to come online, there’s also huge problems in the grid. North America’s electrical grids have not been kept up to deal with additional demand, and if they have to start providing the energy for transportation as well…it’s not going to work well. Expect more blackouts. Unfortunately upgrades are only done once the existing system is maxed, so expect even more years, probably decades of trouble before the system is fully upgraded.
Also, for those in a deregulated market where supply and demand governs the price of electricity, you’ll quickly run into the same cost trouble as gasoline.
As someone who has many neighbours who argue that they need an SUV to drive in winter, let me tell you, it’s just not true. Oh, there’s a few places where its true, but the fact is that those are remote places that don’t see a single plow all winter…not many people live there. If you live anywhere near a city, what you need is a winter driving course – learn how to handle a vehicle in snow and ice and drive accordingly.
Rutherford????? Geeez Janice you are the perfect sucker that defines his audience.
By Ron p on 07.06.08 11:12 pm
Really?? Thank-you!! I do know what the Alberta electorate thinks. The last election pretty well peg it.
Libs and NDP decimated. The conservatives another land slide victory.
So maybe I’m a sucker but at least we have a growing economy where we don’t have to depend on the benevolence of the federal government. We make it on our own out here.
Judy,
Another arrogant, tax me now Liberal. You asked for reasons, now give me a better one to vote Liberal. Should not have said anything about my personal life of course. I paid my dues so you can just go jump off a pier ya thoughtless liberal! My personal info was for illustrative purposes only. You F777ing Liberals want a debate bu when people try to give you their point of view all you can do is find reason to belittle them. Happens all the time on here! I don’t expect or want your sympathy or derision. I want a rational debate not divisive partisanship!
By Spencer on 07.06.08 10:20 pm
For claiming to be a Professor Spencer, you really don’t appear to be very bright. Btw, posters here are trying to debate issues but you obviously can’t understand that unless they agree with your views. PS, we have all paid our dues.
Regards,
Brain and Wayne,
I suspect your gay lovers, who are unemployed.You are both upset that you can’t adopt an orphan from a thrid world country AND you get ALL your worldly views from blogs and Starbucks.
By Barb the proof-reader on 07.06.08 8:57 pm
Gormley… my God, the people who phone in are so screened and planted, its pure propaganda is all it is. Might as well be listening to Canada’s version of Rush Limbough.
Why is it that the Janice’s of the world believe that polluters shouldn’t clean up their act? Auto manufacturer’s protested for 10 years with the catylytic converter saying it wouldn’t work, too expensive… 10 years before they were finally forced to and smog was majorly reduced in cities across North America (for a lousy $200 bucks a ride). Seatbelts, same thing. And guess what, they saved lives!
Sulphur emmissions. Did refineries volunteer to clean up their pollution? Nope! They were forced to and it was an easy fix, by the way, guess what, saving lives.
Now its C02. A harder fix, oil & gas producers deny that C02 is a pollutant and here it goes again. Deny C02 is having an impact on climate change, deny the science, deny the reality that most nations are trying to do something, when caught, just deny, deny, deny.
Obviously, being born, raised and now living back in Saskatchewan, I don’t think much of the Gormley’s of the world. Bought off misfit propaganda profiteers is what they are, legitimizing the illegitimate and nothing more.
This debate is centered around one principle thing really, and not much more. Is C02 a pollutant? If it is, then lets get the ball rolling and reduce/eliminate emmissions. I don’t care if developing nations don’t have the resources to not do nothing (yet). We do. I/we don’t live by the standards of other nations who don’t get it right. I/we live by the ones that work here.
Saying we should do nothing about C02 because other nations like China and India haven’t yet come up to the plate is about the same thing as saying we condone the actions of militant Muslims here because its condoned in Southern Afghanistan, or we should condone communism here because its condoned in China or we should condone pollution here because its condoned in India.
Who are we as a nation to use defenseless arguements like this, that we condone polluting C02 because other nations less developed than ours condone it too?
What ever happened to raising the bar on our own standards? What ever happened to the idea that oil & gas producers do not speak on behalf of ordinary citizens of this fine nation including Alta & Sask?
For what its worth, anyone who listened to Gormley’s interview would have offended anyone with any kind of decent sense of morality and common sense. Me first, aggranizing, macho, balkanizing, selfish, ignorant and dullard came to mind when I heard Gormley’s comments today… not to mention loser. Reminds me of what I think of those who brag up a self interested, for profit only misfit self projector like Gormley… not to mention slow.
By Chris Ariens on 07.06.08 10:05 am
You make good points Chris, except for the fact that the money has been spent, we’ve already blown the wad and developed so to speak so with this much committment already, its hard to put the brakes on maintenance spending now with whats already there. Otherwise, I agree that we need to put a brake on future development and rethink city planning altogether (which should happen with a recession coming), for sure and your thoughts on municiple taxation is good insight, I think into the future with municipalities. Too many municipalities are borrowing too much and that’s definitely a worrisome trend for sure. I like what William Dahl’s 4:36 am post had to say as well to compliment your own points.
By kpn on 07.06.08 10:33 am
Yeah, you are thinking about closed loop geothermal systems that rely on high heat or in mass electrical generation, steam driven turbines and the entire pac rim is suitable for mass generation of power with geothermal, but like you say, the interior is not a hotbed of mass geothermal options. Its not to say the potential isn’t there, but its much less for sure.
I’ve been looking at open loop systems as well for homes where pipe is laid down just below the frost line and liquid is cirulated through the piping system laid out and the heat (mid 40’s to mid 50’s F) is radiated through high density material (cement basement floor heated, or complete earthen ADOBE heated structures). So there’s two ways to go with geothermal homes, the cost is night and day (unless as William suggests, the heat source is close as in the BC mountains in some locations thats the case) but geothermal for mass power generation through steam turbines is another thing altogether. Its feisable through most of the pac rim and the most successful model I can think of is the geothermal project that lights up power for 2 million people in San Francisco.
By William Dahl on 07.06.08 6:41 pm
Excellent points yourself, William. Interesting stuff you had to say about Japan. Thats the one thing I never did talk about was the debt loads generally associated with runaway inflation, but to finish off a point, governments and banking institutions most definitely need to separate inflationary/deflationary costs of living that everyone must buy to survive, heating costs, food, clothing, energy, with that of inflation/deflation of personal wealth associated with real estate/currency/market multiples. They have to be separated to define progessive future policies that are needed because today, we have bad things happening:
- inflationary cost of living
- deflation of personal wealth
And its dried up affordability and hit the banks with bankrupcies and that in turn will dry up financings in the markets. Once spending is tightened all way around, commodities will buckle and from there… well, government has to do what it can to bring back affordabiity as policy or promote deflation in the cost of living or the recession will worsen and last longer.
As to the Japenese model, I should look into their economic history more before endorsing it. Its definitely worth the while to look at the history of what Japan has faced and done about it as some things are similar between Canada and Japan, namely because we are both heavily intertwined with U.S. markets but otherwise, I should challenge my own ascertions before endorsing them like I did with Japan.
Otherwise, excellent points William.
Well Janice, I know plenty of Albertans who are completely fed up with the Conservatives selling out our province’s profits to big oil. The Cons here are in big oil’s pockets, and always have been. It’s just more obvious now, and Albertans have caught on to it. People suspected but it just took some people longer than others. People in Alberta, people everywhere here, are getting mad. We know we are being lied to by the Conservatives.
I’m an Albertan Janice, and my elected MLA is an Alberta Provincial Liberal.
Janice, who are you saying you represent? Or are you just pretending? I’ve asked you before Janice, and I’ll ask for the third time Janice, what province are you in?
By Barb the proof-reader on 07.07.08 12:05 am
Well, Barbie, you may know a couple of Albertans who are fed up with the conservatives but out here its the majority that rules.
So your MLA is a liberal. And that means what? That all of them together couldn’t field a baseball team?
You want to know who I represent? I am one of the majority out here that doesn’t trust the lieberals. That will never vote for them again. That can see right through the wealth redistribution plan of Dion. One of the majority that won’t let that happen again.
So you want to know where I’m from eh Barbie. Well I’ll tell you, I’m not in the habit of revealing personal information on an unsecured web site. Can you tell me what difference it makes where I live?
By Spencer on 07.06.08 10:20 pm
You F777ing Liberals want a debate but when people try to give you their point of view all you can do is find reason to belittle them. Happens all the time on here! I don’t expect or want your sympathy or derision. I want a rational debate not divisive partisanship!
………………………………………………
Watch out, Spencer … the neuro-psycho-whacko-sickos on this fine forum provided for us by our MP Garth is anything but a forum for discussion and debate. It’s more like a Libber-Dipper cesspool filled with political losers on the verge of performing sepukku .. after the next election. Harry S.
So, Spencer, are you going to take advice from Harry about belittling people, after reading his response to you? The man is looking in the mirror again, thinking it’s a window.
This post certainly was a pleasant surprise. I definitely agree about the suburbs. I grew up in a somewhat suburby area of Calgary (Dalhousie) where in the winter we would have to walk some 20 minutes in the snow just to get to a single convenience store (that was in jr. high when none of us had cars). Now I live in Seoul and absolutely everything is within a few minutes of where I live. Two subway lines within ten minutes’ walk, the bus to the airport is just down the street, convenience stores are a minute away, Asia’s largest mall is five minutes walk away as well as a huge temple.
The problem is that the air here is pretty horrid, but that’s because most of the development here took place in the 60s – late 80s when people didn’t really have the economic leeway tocare about things like air and the environment. Now the city is starting to clean itself up, such as the removal of a highway that was built in the 1970s in order to restore a stream that was covered over then to make the highway. Now the stream (called the Cheonggyecheon) is back and it’s a nice little park. Baby steps.
By brain on 07.07.08 2:59 am
Brain, you don’t understand WHY
Garth,
I’m tired of hearing about this notion that we use too many resources, namely land in our neighbourhoods. Please, please, take a look at the map of Canada – there is no shortage of acreage, just an oversupply of elitist politicians telling their constituents to ‘eat cake’ while they live the life of Reilly on our over-taxed hard work.
To say that Dion, your fearless leader has opened up ‘debate’ is nothing more than condescending patronizing pap. I and most Canadians will not be buying the latest tax grab, er, plan from the Lieberals.
~sorry Garth…I hit the ’say it’ button before I was finished, please delete that previous half finished sentence. Thanks.
By brain on 07.07.08 2:59 am
Hi Brain, you do not understand WHY we must insist on China, India and the U.S. meet GHG targets?
China and India have forced labour with no social safety nets for the people. India has what is no less than slave labour, the lower cast people perform hard-core labour often with no pay. The U.S. still has mammoth farm subsidies (as does the E.U.). All these countries ship product to Canada and already have a huge leg up on the marketplace over our farmers and manufacturers.
Now, we should throw in the mix of Canada’s industries having to pay through the nose for GHG emissions AND pay a carbon tax on top? Do you have any idea what that would cost, reducing and paying the extra tax? That’s like fixing a listing ship with a few extra holes.
Why are we so determined to let China off the hook for everything? Want to buy a healthy organ? Go to China they’ve got lots of political prisoners just dying to sell you one. China is so overwhelmingly wealthy they subsidize gasoline! The Chinese people only pay 86 cents for a liter of gas. The pollution is so bad the country is toxic. India is no better.
China is the largest emitter of GHG and it’s only getting worse. The U.S. is the second. We no longer have the advantage of the 60 cent dollar to off-set the U.S. subsidy, can we afford to burden our industry here with a carbon tax now?
The environment is important but we cannot bankrupt this country in the process…we must be balanced and fair.
Leasa
Leasa: So you are O.K. with laissez-faire?
If China & India & the U.S, want to foul the air their children breathe then we should follow suit?
What about leading by example? Isn’t that what democracies are all about?
So far the Conservatives have presented an obsolete intensity based scheme ( I will call it a scheme because Jane Taber likes to call the Liberal and NDP policies “schemes” while she refers to any Conservative policy as a “plan”.
Harper is so afraid of offending big gas and oil profiteers with any kind of aggressive plan that he is jeopardizing the health and pocket books of all Canadians.
Exactly how much does it cost our health systems to treat problems related to environmental issues?
So you want to know where I’m from eh Barbie. Well I’ll tell you, I’m not in the habit of revealing personal information on an unsecured web site. Can you tell me what difference it makes where I live?
By Janice on 07.07.08 8:25 am
You are absolutely right, it matters not where you live….and quite frankly who cares…probably in a cess pool!
So maybe I’m a sucker but at least we have a growing economy where we don’t have to depend on the benevolence of the federal government. We make it on our own out here.
By Janice on 07.07.08 12:57 am
Oh how convenient of you to say that Alberta doesn’t have to depend on the Feds. I would think it’s fair to say that you are TOTALLY depending on the Harpo feds to maintain your status quo.
I feel very lucky to have lived in Alberta for the last 30 years and you should be just as humble and thankful for the stuff that we just happen to have BELOW our feet. And if you had any sense of community; and I mean locally and nationally, you would give back to it and do whatever it takes to enhance and protect it because the stuff ABOVE our feet has no borders.
Gotta laugh, a poster above mentioned a “modest” home at 2400 sq feet for 5 people.
Modest eh. It’s that kinda gluttony that’s got us where we are today.
Modest, LOL, that’s like saying 40 MPG is “good” mileage.
Here is another reason why the carbon tax doesn’t work Garth.
Canada is an importer of oil. Wha you say? How can that be? It does seem odd given Alberta’s sitting on top of over 2 trillion barrels of heavy crude
But, no one ever built a pipeline to the east. So Ontario buys it’s oil from Venezuela & the Middle East, not Alberta. Sounds scary eh, even more so when you consider it’s very possible that those countries could STOP exports for whatever reason (think the Yom Kipper war). Ontario, could be left high and dry while the west is gushing oil.
Which eastern centric government lacked the foresight to secure it’s energy future ?>
Gotta add this too Garth
Most of the East does not get it’s petroleum products from Canada. It buys them from Venezuela or the Middle East. So let’s think about this “Carbon Tax”
The carbon tax does not include gasoline at the pump. Therefore, Joe Ontario buys a tank of gas, from the Middle East & neither the producer or end user pay a “carbon tax”
Now…
The producer in Alberta has to pay this carbon tax.
So in theory, energy consumption in the East (largest population) will not change. The end user doesn’t pay, nor does the supplier (another nation).
Yet Western Canada pays. The East gets off carbon tax free (from a gas perspective) The west gets nailed to the wall. So Dion ends up supporting foreign oil, but punishing North American energy supplies.
I want you to remember this Turner. You’re aware of Peak Oil and you probably know that there comes a time in Peak Oil when producing countries “deplete” so much they can’t export. England is a great example. Next year it becomes an importer, rather than an exporter of crude. Eastern Canada is the reason Canada imports it’s oil. It gets no oil from Western Canada, it gets it all from Venezuela (peaked in the 70s) and from the Middle East.
What happens when those countries can’t export? Saudi exports are already in decline. It’s not how MUCH oil they pump, but how much they export. And that number is falling.
So there will be Ontario, desperate for energy and it will turn west to Alberta, a place with 2 trillion barrels of heavy crude. And it will say…”please help us, we need energy”. How do you expect the West will react after the NEP, after a Carbon Tax that destroys OUR business but lets Ontario gas consumers off scott-free ?
The rest of the world knows it’s in their best interest to snuggle up with the oil producers. It’s probably a wise idea that Eastern politicians do the same thing. People out here have long memories dude.
Also seem to have lots of time, dude. How many posts is this today? — Garth
Great essay Garth, self serving and liberally sprinkled with half-truths and punctuated with chicken little alarmist claims. But overall I agree that the economic cycles will continue, real estate goes up and down, the burbs expand and then contract, good times come and go. Some individuals will prosper, others will struggle, but in the end Canadians will adapt and find ways to make a good life for themselves and their families. Canada will continue to be one of the best places to live n spite of our politicians and self-serving blather.
“They should all be run out of town on a rail.”
Agreed, Jennifer Smith, but you’d have to run all developers and municipal politicians out of all towns. The sad fact is that development charges acts and municipal appeal boards are industry driven, and that developers are a major source of election funds for municipal politicians (I know of only two out of 23 Ottawa city councillors who will not accept donations from developers.) Besides, what’s good for the industry is good for the common good, isn’t it?
The worst part is not that it’s always easy to blame the victims who buy into suburbia, but that they and the remainder of the taxpaying public will have to pay for built-in infrastructure deficits eventually. Can’t have cities crumbling and communities suffer, can we, so government(s) will have to come to the rescue with general revenue.
And let us not forget to celebrate those developers who have made big bucks and give some of those to culture or charities as philantropists!
Charles Oxley,
“There are a few reasons why we will rent … not the least of which is no property taxes to pay.”
Friendly correction, Charles, a landlord’s property taxes form a good chunk of the rent you pay. In Ontario, that chunk amounts to about 20% of monthly rents.
Sorry, buddy, only death will divorce you from property taxes.
This is the best assessment I’ve ever seen from a politician. I think you may be one of the few Canadian politicians that understands this issue Garth. Please work to educate your fellow MPs.
First, global warming comes and goes, it all depends on the cyclic position the earth finds itself visa vie the sun
Second, the earth is a living planet
it turns and twists, it breathes winds,
tornedos,huricanes,and cylclones; trans-
porting bad air into good air by washing it through rain, snow and the
leafs of trees. 3/4 of our planet is occupied by water, cooled by the two
polars, south and north to make sure we
do not burn up walking on earth. Molden lava below the crust of earth does need vending once in awhile and that causes
volcanos and earth-quakes. Sometimes they create new landscapes,such as Hawaii and others.
To think, that we little ants of humans could destroy the earth in any
way permanently is politically motivated by the EPA, funded secretly
by the Opec-Cartel who planned that we and the rest of the industrial nations
be dependend to them through their oil, their only means of survival. End of that story.
Solution: We have more untapped energy
below OUR NATION, than Opec and other oil producers combined and I am not talking about bio-fuels, we can buy us time to develop more powerful and intelligent energy for our future.
That is my opinion, thanks for reading.
Maybe…..But I don’t think it would help that much if we all lived in high rises in the city. We’ve been here before, in the ’70s, and it didn’t affect demand for houses in the suburbs much then either.
Demand for gasoline is inelastic, but only in the short term. In the longer term, people will switch to smaller cars. That’s what happened in the ’70s and caused all the refinery closures (remember Texaco Port Credit; Gulf Clarkson; Shell Oakville; and Petrocan Oakville?) in this area. (It also provided a great opportunity to increase market share for Japanese automakers who had small, fuel efficient cars available when the Big 3 did not.)
I think what will happen instead of a demise of suburbs (where would all the residents move to, anyway?) is that people will find cheaper transportation alternatives.
What we need most now is some real government leadership (OK, that’s an oxymoron) to stop the population growth in the GTA, and let’s add some kind of significant tax for inefficient vehicles, the way that cars with bigger engines used to cost more to license in the 1950s.