January 7th, 2010 — The Economy
This site contains the thoughts and bloggings of a Canadian who was elected to Parliament, twice, who decided he would represent constituents first and political masters second, and paid the price for such heresy.
They are maintained as a record. As such, they speak for themselves.
To hear what Garth Turner is saying now, try this.
October 29th, 2008 — Canadian Politics, Gomery Inquiry, Halton Riding Events, The Economy
Abandoned condo tower site in Vancouver.
Listen to Garth’s interview on the financial turmoil, here.
Funny days, these. The dollar falls three cents one day and climbs four the next. The TSX is down 700 points, only to climb nine hundred two days later. The government gets elected saying no deficit and two weeks later there is one. There’s a credit crisis and yet interest rates look like they’re headed for zero.
RRSPs, pensions, nesteggs – they’ve all been violated. Corporations are whining for federal bailouts and saying they can’t afford pensions for retired workers. Unemployment’s rising and consumer confidence is plunging.
Strange times. Deflation is the big story now – falling retail prices, crumbling house prices, cheap cars and Christmas sales in October. But in times to come, it will be inflation – since governments are spending billions they don’t have but will be looking for down the road. Higher taxes, increased money supply, less purchasing power.
The Fed threw another log on the fires of distant inflation Wednesday, cutting interest rates yet again, and taking its key rate down to just 1%. This is scary. You might remember Japan did exactly the same over a decade ago when its real estate market went to hell, forcing interest rates to hit 0% as the government tried to prime the pump. Didn’t work, though. Japanese house prices stayed in the shark fin soup for 15 years, recovered a little and have recently crashed again. An apartment in Tokyo that was $1 million US in 1985 is today worth less than $480,000.
But in Canada, we’ve been told by the prime minister and other less notables, it’s all different. We’re an island of stability. A rock. Northern star. Canadian Shield (not, that’s not a condom).
Maybe not so much.
Close to two years ago I said our real estate market was poised to fall. Said it again in a book six months ago. Now it’s here. This is vitally important because – as in the United States – this is the thing you should most fear. Not the stock market. Not the currency. Not energy costs. Houses.
Residential real estate accounts for almost 85% of all family net worth. Meanwhile the Canadian savings rate – as in the US – is now zero. Once home values start to slide, nothing has more of an impact on consumer confidence and concern about financial well-being. Since house prices rose by more than 73% in the past decade (about the same as the US in the years following Nine Eleven), mortgage debt has exploded. After all, household incomes have barely budged, so pricier houses simply mean more borrowing.
So, never before have we (a) saved nothing, (b) had so much of our wealth in one asset, (c) owed so damn much or (d) shown such appalling financial planning, with a total lack of diversification, as now. It was obvious when the average price of a home exceeded the ability of the average family to buy it, the market was over-valued. It would have corrected harmlessly, had it not been for the geniuses who invented subprimes in the US and 0/40 mortgages here. The boom became a bubble, and now a bust.
It was real estate, after all – not Wall Street, hedge funds or the greedy twits who ran Lehmans or Bear Stearns – that created the mess in America. The middle class there is being dealt a body blow and it seems we’re destined to be smacked in the same fashion.
Officially, home prices have fallen just over 6% nationally in the past year. But that number’s misleading. In Toronto, they’re down 15% from the peak, and an equal amount in Edmonton and Vancouver. Condo projects are being cancelled all over everywhere while home sellers now wait months for an offer and realtors play with their Berries during clientless open houses.
Listings have hit a high point, and sales are off 50% in BC, 43% in Muskoka, 70% in Leaside and by half in Kelowna. Spooked by the times, and rightly so, buyers are staying home in drives, knowing prices will be lower in January than they are now.
There is no option but for the Canadian government to push for lower interest rates, bring in an income tax cut and throw more billions we apparently don’t have at the Bay Street lenders. If that were to happen immediately, in an economic statement, it might help some to keep the real estate melt from becoming a meltdown.
But don’t hold your breath. It’s different here. You’ll see.
July 27th, 2008 — Canadian Politics, The Economy
Two brief points to follow yesterday’s shameless promo of the gig Dion and I will be hosting in Halton three weeks from now.
First, I said if enough garth.ca devotees indicated they’d like to come and meet the guy, I’d make it happen with a special pre-event event. Well, it is. Actually I’ve heard from people who live in Kingston on the left and Manitoba on the right, and a bunch in the middle, who will be coming on August 20th. So, count on a Bloggers Bash with Stephane Dion in which you will have the opportunity of asking him whatever.
Of course, there is room for more. If you would like to be part of this group, email me directly at garth@garth.ca. I’m looking forward to the conversation, but the main event will be meeting some of the people who prowl the mean streets and seedier corners of this blog. Naturally, I will have heavy security.
Second, some weenies have questioned the entire validity of live political events. What point is there, they cry, having a federal leader visit Halton, or Halifax or Red Deer, when only a small percentage of the population can get there? How does this advance the national agenda? How does it make a politician more accountable? What’s the point? Isn’t it just a PR photo-op?
Well, I look at it this way. Over the 31 months since the last federal election, I have held 34 Town Hall meetings in Halton that were advertised in the local papers, open to all, and offered a chance for every single person who showed up to make a comment, ask a question or deliver a speech. I’ve done similar meetings – another 26 of them – in cities and provinces remote from my riding. Some meetings were sparsely attended and in some, people were hanging from the rafters.
Attendance at my meetings in Halton has averaged 60 people, so about 1,800 have come out. That’s from a population of more than 120,000. Does this make the meetings a failure? Not worth having? Am I therefore unaccountable as the MP?
Or am I doing exactly what a politician should do, which is blog and send mailings to all homes, write a letter to every constituent every year, do a column for the local media, meet citizens in my office, plus make myself available in person at least once a month in a well-publicized meeting to talk to anyone who shows up? If just sixty people come, instead of 6,000, was it a waste?
Hardly. Only a cynic, a fool or an egomaniac would not understand that an MP’s job is to care about everybody, and every person at the same time. You cannot make people with busy lives care about economic policy, environmental initiatives, foreign policy or even taxes. But a good politician takes every opportunity at hand and uses every tool possible to both communicate and to listen.
Thus, it might be easier for Stephane Dion to grant a network television interview each Sunday and take the rest of the week off, certain that a few million people heard his voice. It would certainly be less stressful to follow Mr. Harper’s model, and make one well-scripted, tightly-controlled and voter-less announcement every few weeks. After all, public meetings are just that – public. Critics and opponents show up. People seeking to embarrass or diminish you, all in front of cameras and reporters. Without a doubt, this is the high-wire act of politics.
But, as with my own local Town Halls, Dion’s forays into banquet halls, gymnasiums and church basements are examples of what a responsible politician must do. Especially one that is full of ideas to solve common problems and totally unafraid of criticism, or even failure. It’s one thing for a local nobody like me to open the doors. But it’s another completely for a man one vote away from being prime minister. Meet courage.
So, are you coming?
Update:
I have just received this message, to pass on: “What a fantastic idea to allow bloggers a chance to mingle with yourself and Stephane. I live in Brandon, Manitoba and i can honestly say that most often we feel absolutely alienated from the political debate. Our MP rarely if ever makes appearances in our City and i honestly can’t name many accomplishments for my community that i would attach to his efforts. When Provincial or Federal leaders or politicians come through Brandon (rarely if ever) your unlikely to hear about it until it’s too late or already happened. I consider myself an extremely politically involved young individual and i would be honoured to attend your meeting. I’m wondering if it would be possible for you to pass some of my contact information off to anyone from Manitoba and further west who would be willing to pick up a young “hitcher” in Manitoba for the ride. I’m of course willing to chip in my fair share of the costs but getting to Halton could be a challenge.
If your okay with that or you see any opening please consider this. Thanks, Jamie, Brandon, MB.”
So, who can pick him up?
